Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Fort Loramie vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Fort Loramie
- Margin error
- 48.2
Sep 4, 2026
Bradford vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 34–12
- Projected winner
- Bradford
- Margin error
- 17.9
Sep 4, 2026
River vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 28–21
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- River
- Margin error
- 27.6
Sep 4, 2026
Millersport vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 44–14
- Projected winner
- Federal Hocking
- Margin error
- 31.0
Sep 4, 2026
Miller vs. Racine Southern
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 8–44
- Projected winner
- Racine Southern
- Margin error
- 32.7
Sep 4, 2026
Fisher Catholic vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 0–7
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 9.6
Sep 4, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. South Gallia
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 38.4
Sep 4, 2026
Upper Scioto Valley vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Cardington-Lincoln
- Margin error
- 4.8
Sep 4, 2026
Delphos St. John's vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 7–57
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 39.4
Sep 4, 2026
Spencerville vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 27.0
Sep 4, 2026
North Baltimore vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 28–13
- Final
- 42–19
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 8.3
Sep 4, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 20–15
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Hardin Northern
- Margin error
- 5.3
Sep 4, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. Lima Perry
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Lima Perry
- Margin error
- 9.6
Sep 4, 2026
Ayersville vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 26–20
- Projected winner
- Toledo Christian
- Margin error
- 10.4
Sep 4, 2026
Antwerp vs. Hilltop
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 48–12
- Projected winner
- Hilltop
- Margin error
- 40.1
Sep 4, 2026
Ada vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 41–28
- Projected winner
- Ada
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 4, 2026
Salineville Southern vs. Bridgeport
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 34–36
- Projected winner
- Bridgeport
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 4, 2026
Monroeville vs. Danville
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 29.7
Sep 4, 2026
Leetonia vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- Leetonia
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 4, 2026
Cuyahoga Heights vs. North Central
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 36–7
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Heights
- Margin error
- 24.6
Sep 4, 2026
Buckeye Central vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 0–48
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 43.0
Sep 4, 2026
Steubenville Catholic Central vs. Bishop Rosecrans
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Bishop Rosecrans
- Margin error
- 38.7
Sep 4, 2026
Triad vs. Springfield Catholic Central
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Triad
- Margin error
- 42.7
Sep 4, 2026
Minster vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- New Bremen
- Margin error
- 8.2
Sep 4, 2026
National Trail vs. Ansonia
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 13–48
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 34.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 49–0 | Fort Loramie | Fort Loramie | 48.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–17 | 34–12 | Bradford | Bradford | 17.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 28–21 | 49–14 | River | River | 27.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–21 | 44–14 | Federal Hocking | Millersport | 31.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–20 | 8–44 | Racine Southern | Racine Southern | 32.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 0–7 | Fisher Catholic | Portsmouth Notre Dame | 9.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–21 | 42–6 | South Gallia | Reedsville Eastern | 38.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–21 | 14–13 | Cardington-Lincoln | Upper Scioto Valley | 4.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–28 | 7–57 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 39.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–22 | 0–35 | Riverside | Riverside | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 28–13 | 42–19 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 8.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–15 | 20–21 | Hardin Northern | Ridgemont | 5.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–21 | 14–28 | Lima Perry | Lima Perry | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–21 | 26–20 | Toledo Christian | Ayersville | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–23 | 48–12 | Hilltop | Antwerp | 40.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–17 | 41–28 | Ada | Ada | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–20 | 34–36 | Bridgeport | Bridgeport | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–38 | Danville | Danville | 29.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–19 | 28–35 | Leetonia | Wellsville | 8.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–18 | 36–7 | Cuyahoga Heights | Cuyahoga Heights | 24.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–25 | 0–48 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 43.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–21 | 41–7 | Bishop Rosecrans | Steubenville Catholic Central | 38.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–16 | 48–0 | Triad | Triad | 42.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–24 | 28–21 | New Bremen | Minster | 8.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–24 | 13–48 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 34.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
