Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Greenon vs. West Jefferson
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–62
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 35.3
Sep 4, 2026
East Clinton vs. Fairfield Christian
- Projected
- 18–16
- Final
- 16–25
- Projected winner
- East Clinton
- Margin error
- 10.6
Sep 4, 2026
Clark Montessori vs. Finneytown
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 39–0
- Projected winner
- Finneytown
- Margin error
- 44.2
Sep 4, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 24–12
- Projected winner
- Madeira
- Margin error
- 19.0
Sep 4, 2026
Blanchester vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 36–26
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 4, 2026
Bethel vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 12–20
- Projected winner
- Carlisle
- Margin error
- 5.1
Sep 4, 2026
Utica vs. Fredericktown
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 27–30
- Projected winner
- Fredericktown
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 4, 2026
Portsmouth West vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Huntington
- Margin error
- 23.5
Sep 4, 2026
South Point vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 41.5
Sep 4, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Greenup County
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 8–54
- Projected winner
- Greenup County
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 4, 2026
Piketon vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Piketon
- Margin error
- 25.3
Sep 4, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Bidwell River Valley
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 12–38
- Projected winner
- Oak Hill
- Margin error
- 26.5
Sep 4, 2026
Minford vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 6–31
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 4, 2026
Liberty Union vs. Meigs
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Meigs
- Margin error
- 28.9
Sep 4, 2026
Harvest Prep vs. Lumen Christi
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 22–43
- Projected winner
- Lumen Christi
- Margin error
- 20.4
Sep 4, 2026
Coshocton vs. WL Ridgewood
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Coshocton
- Margin error
- 40.4
Sep 4, 2026
Chesapeake vs. McDermott Northwest
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 35–6
- Projected winner
- Chesapeake
- Margin error
- 25.9
Sep 4, 2026
Amanda-Clearcreek vs. Zane Trace
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 4, 2026
Alexander vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 20–42
- Projected winner
- Alexander
- Margin error
- 30.4
Sep 4, 2026
Willard vs. Bucyrus
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–19
- Projected winner
- Willard
- Margin error
- 8.2
Sep 4, 2026
Waynedale vs. New London
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 48–29
- Projected winner
- New London
- Margin error
- 21.0
Sep 4, 2026
Swanton vs. Ottawa Hills
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 4.1
Sep 4, 2026
Otsego vs. Liberty Center
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 16–53
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 34.9
Sep 4, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Western Reserve
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 21–38
- Projected winner
- WS Northwestern
- Margin error
- 17.6
Sep 4, 2026
North Union vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 21.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–62 | Greenon | West Jefferson | 35.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–16 | 16–25 | East Clinton | Fairfield Christian | 10.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–22 | 39–0 | Finneytown | Clark Montessori | 44.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–26 | 24–12 | Madeira | Cincinnati Hills CA | 19.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–16 | 36–26 | Blanchester | Blanchester | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 12–20 | Carlisle | Carlisle | 5.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–21 | 27–30 | Fredericktown | Fredericktown | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–7 | Chillicothe Huntington | Portsmouth West | 23.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 49–6 | South Point | South Point | 41.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–22 | 8–54 | Greenup County | Greenup County | 39.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–21 | 7–28 | Piketon | Lucasville Valley | 25.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–18 | 12–38 | Oak Hill | Bidwell River Valley | 26.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–24 | 6–31 | Beaver Eastern | Beaver Eastern | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–39 | Meigs | Meigs | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–23 | 22–43 | Lumen Christi | Lumen Christi | 20.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–20 | 0–38 | Coshocton | WL Ridgewood | 40.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–17 | 35–6 | Chesapeake | Chesapeake | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–24 | 14–21 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–18 | 20–42 | Alexander | Crooksville | 30.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–19 | Willard | Bucyrus | 8.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–19 | 48–29 | New London | Waynedale | 21.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–27 | 7–14 | Ottawa Hills | Ottawa Hills | 4.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 16–53 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 34.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–22 | 21–38 | WS Northwestern | Western Reserve | 17.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–19 | 41–14 | North Union | North Union | 21.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
