Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Goshen vs. Hillsboro
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 35.3
Aug 28, 2026
Franklin vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 0–37
- Projected winner
- Valley View
- Margin error
- 33.7
Aug 28, 2026
Elida vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 21–31
- Projected winner
- Elida
- Margin error
- 10.0
Aug 28, 2026
Celina vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 7–6
- Projected winner
- Celina
- Margin error
- 7.8
Aug 28, 2026
Bishop Fenwick vs. Monroe
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 41–20
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 27.2
Aug 28, 2026
Hamilton Badin vs. Dixie Heights
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 29.0
Aug 28, 2026
Zanesville vs. Clear Fork
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 12–38
- Projected winner
- Zanesville
- Margin error
- 27.2
Aug 28, 2026
Western Brown vs. Simon Kenton
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 27–34
- Projected winner
- Western Brown
- Margin error
- 9.8
Aug 28, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Wilmington
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 34.1
Aug 28, 2026
Marietta vs. John Marshall
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 28–37
- Projected winner
- John Marshall
- Margin error
- 5.5
Aug 28, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 36–12
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 24.5
Aug 28, 2026
Jackson vs. Gallia Academy
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- Jackson
- Margin error
- 55.0
Aug 28, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 26–18
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 9.1
Aug 28, 2026
Granville vs. Tri-Valley
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 15.9
Aug 28, 2026
Centennial vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 0–29
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 23.4
Aug 28, 2026
Buckeye Valley vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 26–0
- Projected winner
- Africentric
- Margin error
- 27.1
Aug 28, 2026
Bishop Hartley vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Bishop Hartley
- Margin error
- 3.7
Aug 28, 2026
Bellefontaine vs. Bellbrook
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 17–49
- Projected winner
- Bellefontaine
- Margin error
- 35.3
Aug 28, 2026
Athens vs. Unioto
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- Athens
- Margin error
- 20.3
Aug 28, 2026
Toledo Woodward vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 16–49
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 30.9
Aug 28, 2026
Rogers vs. Gibsonburg
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 27–39
- Projected winner
- Gibsonburg
- Margin error
- 11.1
Aug 28, 2026
Norwalk vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–58
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 50.7
Aug 28, 2026
Norton vs. Sandy Valley
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Norton
- Margin error
- 24.3
Aug 28, 2026
Maumee vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Maumee
- Margin error
- 1.1
Aug 28, 2026
Lexington vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 6–48
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 34.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 49–7 | Goshen | Goshen | 35.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–21 | 0–37 | Valley View | Valley View | 33.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–23 | 21–31 | Elida | Van Wert | 10.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 7–6 | Celina | Celina | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 41–20 | Monroe | Bishop Fenwick | 27.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 42–13 | Hamilton Badin | Hamilton Badin | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 12–38 | Zanesville | Clear Fork | 27.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–20 | 27–34 | Western Brown | Simon Kenton | 9.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 7–35 | Miami Trace | Wilmington | 34.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–22 | 28–37 | John Marshall | John Marshall | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 36–12 | Columbus Academy | Jonathan Alder | 24.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 55–0 | Jackson | Jackson | 55.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 26–18 | Wheelersburg | Chillicothe | 9.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–28 | 24–21 | Tri-Valley | Granville | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 0–29 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 23.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 26–0 | Africentric | Buckeye Valley | 27.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–17 | 28–27 | Bishop Hartley | Bishop Hartley | 3.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 17–49 | Bellefontaine | Bellbrook | 35.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 14–33 | Athens | Unioto | 20.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–24 | 16–49 | Oak Harbor | Oak Harbor | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 27–39 | Gibsonburg | Gibsonburg | 11.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–58 | Ontario | Ontario | 50.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 41–7 | Norton | Norton | 24.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 24–21 | Maumee | Maumee | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 6–48 | Shelby | Shelby | 34.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
