Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Shroder vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Margin error
- 51.0
Sep 4, 2026
Norwood vs. Gamble Montessori
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Gamble Montessori
- Margin error
- 4.1
Sep 4, 2026
Springfield Northwestern vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 34.0
Sep 4, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. Brookville
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 8–35
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 21.3
Sep 4, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Oakwood
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 34.5
Sep 4, 2026
McClain vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 56–0
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 47.7
Sep 4, 2026
Hillsboro vs. Waynesville
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 13–52
- Projected winner
- Waynesville
- Margin error
- 32.7
Sep 4, 2026
Graham Local vs. Covington
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 22.0
Sep 4, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 46.5
Sep 4, 2026
Batavia vs. Kenton Ridge
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 6–46
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 35.1
Sep 4, 2026
Archbishop McNicholas vs. Ironton
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 10–17
- Projected winner
- Ironton
- Margin error
- 3.5
Sep 4, 2026
Vinton County vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 49–28
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 4, 2026
River View vs. Chippewa
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 0–66
- Projected winner
- Chippewa
- Margin error
- 61.8
Sep 4, 2026
Philo vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 35–6
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 27.8
Sep 4, 2026
Maysville vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–44
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 34.2
Sep 4, 2026
John Glenn vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 14–29
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 11.6
Sep 4, 2026
Indian Creek vs. Union Local
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Union Local
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 4, 2026
Heath vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 24–18
- Projected winner
- Heath
- Margin error
- 5.5
Sep 4, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Point Pleasant
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 17–35
- Projected winner
- Gallia Academy
- Margin error
- 19.5
Sep 4, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. Hebron Lakewood
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 47–13
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Union
- Margin error
- 29.2
Sep 4, 2026
Circleville vs. Westfall
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 49–15
- Projected winner
- Circleville
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 4, 2026
Cambridge vs. Meadowbrook
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Cambridge
- Margin error
- 34.0
Sep 4, 2026
Wauseon vs. Eastwood
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Wauseon
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 4, 2026
Van Wert vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 43–20
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 21.3
Sep 4, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Wynford
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Upper Sandusky
- Margin error
- 37.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–21 | 0–54 | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 51.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–27 | 6–20 | Gamble Montessori | Gamble Montessori | 4.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–25 | 7–48 | Miami East | Miami East | 34.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–23 | 8–35 | Brookville | Brookville | 21.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–42 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 34.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–16 | 56–0 | McClain | McClain | 47.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–23 | 13–52 | Waynesville | Waynesville | 32.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–20 | 27–0 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 22.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–53 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 46.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–23 | 6–46 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 35.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–28 | 10–17 | Ironton | Ironton | 3.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 49–28 | Vinton County | Vinton County | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–21 | 0–66 | Chippewa | Chippewa | 61.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 35–6 | Philo | Philo | 27.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–44 | West Muskingum | West Muskingum | 34.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–24 | 14–29 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–48 | Union Local | Union Local | 39.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 24–18 | Heath | Heath | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–16 | 17–35 | Gallia Academy | Point Pleasant | 19.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–16 | 47–13 | Fairfield Union | Fairfield Union | 29.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–18 | 49–15 | Circleville | Circleville | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–17 | 7–40 | Cambridge | Meadowbrook | 34.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–19 | 7–12 | Wauseon | Eastwood | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 43–20 | Van Wert | Van Wert | 21.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–19 | 48–7 | Upper Sandusky | Upper Sandusky | 37.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
