Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
St. Marys Memorial vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 29–17
- Final
- 21–49
- Projected winner
- St. Marys Memorial
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 18, 2026
Cincinnati Northwest vs. Cincinnati Woodward
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 26.9
Sep 18, 2026
New Richmond vs. Purcell Marian
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 9.3
Sep 18, 2026
Monroe vs. Clinton-Massie
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 55–34
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 16.0
Sep 18, 2026
Hughes vs. Clark Montessori
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 56–20
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 27.0
Sep 18, 2026
Goshen vs. Blanchester
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 47–14
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 18, 2026
Franklin vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 14–38
- Projected winner
- Carlisle
- Margin error
- 17.0
Sep 18, 2026
Elida vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 6–23
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 3.4
Sep 18, 2026
Celina vs. Lima Shawnee
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Celina
- Margin error
- 8.1
Sep 18, 2026
Bishop Fenwick vs. Mount Healthy
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 21.1
Sep 18, 2026
Butler vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 43.1
Sep 18, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Bellbrook
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 7–10
- Projected winner
- Bellbrook
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 18, 2026
Zanesville vs. Utica
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 51–32
- Projected winner
- Utica
- Margin error
- 19.8
Sep 18, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 36–7
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 15.3
Sep 18, 2026
Columbus DeSales vs. River Rouge
- Projected
- 29–15
- Final
- 27–14
- Projected winner
- Columbus DeSales
- Margin error
- 1.6
Sep 18, 2026
Sheridan vs. River View
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 72–0
- Projected winner
- Sheridan
- Margin error
- 63.2
Sep 18, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Western Brown
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 42–21
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 20.0
Sep 18, 2026
Marietta vs. Claymont
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 34.6
Sep 18, 2026
London vs. Graham Local
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 7–10
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 2.1
Sep 18, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 18, 2026
Jackson vs. Ironton
- Projected
- 24–27
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Ironton
- Margin error
- 28.6
Sep 18, 2026
Hamilton Township vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 26–6
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Township
- Margin error
- 9.8
Sep 18, 2026
Granville vs. Hebron Lakewood
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Granville
- Margin error
- 45.5
Sep 18, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Wilmington
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 62–33
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 29.3
Sep 18, 2026
Bishop Watterson vs. Harvest Prep
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 50–6
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 35.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–17 | 21–49 | St. Marys Memorial | Wapakoneta | 39.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–16 | 35–0 | Cincinnati Northwest | Cincinnati Northwest | 26.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–17 | 28–14 | New Richmond | New Richmond | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–19 | 55–34 | Monroe | Monroe | 16.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–17 | 56–20 | Hughes | Hughes | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 47–14 | Goshen | Goshen | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–22 | 14–38 | Carlisle | Carlisle | 17.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–29 | 6–23 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–19 | 28–13 | Celina | Celina | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–0 | Bishop Fenwick | Bishop Fenwick | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–24 | 0–42 | Butler | Tippecanoe | 43.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–26 | 7–10 | Bellbrook | Bellbrook | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–21 | 51–32 | Utica | Zanesville | 19.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–14 | 36–7 | Tri-Valley | Tri-Valley | 15.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–15 | 27–14 | Columbus DeSales | Columbus DeSales | 1.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–15 | 72–0 | Sheridan | Sheridan | 63.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–20 | 42–21 | Miami Trace | Miami Trace | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–26 | 0–42 | Claymont | Claymont | 34.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–27 | 7–10 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 2.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–17 | 35–0 | Jonathan Alder | Jonathan Alder | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–27 | 7–38 | Ironton | Ironton | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–16 | 26–6 | Hamilton Township | Hamilton Township | 9.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–17 | 49–0 | Granville | Granville | 45.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–25 | 62–33 | Wilmington | Chillicothe | 29.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–18 | 50–6 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 35.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
