Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Bishop Hartley vs. Buckeye Valley
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Valley
- Margin error
- 9.5
Sep 18, 2026
Bellefontaine vs. Indian Lake
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Indian Lake
- Margin error
- 33.1
Sep 18, 2026
Athens vs. Vinton County
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 50–12
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 38.8
Sep 18, 2026
Sandusky vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 26–39
- Projected winner
- Vermilion
- Margin error
- 10.2
Sep 18, 2026
Norwalk vs. Milan Edison
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Milan Edison
- Margin error
- 38.9
Sep 18, 2026
Maumee vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 17–56
- Projected winner
- Maumee
- Margin error
- 39.2
Sep 18, 2026
Mansfield Madison vs. West Holmes
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- West Holmes
- Margin error
- 30.8
Sep 18, 2026
Defiance vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 28–61
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 20.7
Sep 18, 2026
Copley vs. Revere
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 35–10
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 18.6
Sep 18, 2026
Tiffin Columbian vs. Huron
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 12.4
Sep 18, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Holy Name
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 20–31
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 18.3
Sep 18, 2026
West Geauga vs. Pepper Pike Orange
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 21.6
Sep 18, 2026
Tallmadge vs. Norton
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Norton
- Margin error
- 22.4
Sep 18, 2026
Steubenville vs. Indian Valley
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 12–41
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 24.4
Sep 18, 2026
Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Margin error
- 29.1
Sep 18, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–64
- Projected winner
- Cloverleaf
- Margin error
- 57.8
Sep 18, 2026
Ravenna vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 48.5
Sep 18, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. Lakeview
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 14–11
- Projected winner
- Niles McKinley
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 18, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- New Philadelphia
- Margin error
- 29.2
Sep 18, 2026
Marlington vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 39.9
Sep 18, 2026
Hubbard vs. Poland Seminary
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 24–35
- Projected winner
- Hubbard
- Margin error
- 12.6
Sep 18, 2026
Howland vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 27–7
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 15.6
Sep 18, 2026
hARVEY vs. Lutheran West
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 14–16
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 9.9
Sep 18, 2026
Geneva vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Geneva
- Margin error
- 0.6
Sep 18, 2026
Dover vs. Ashland
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 39–21
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 15.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–21 | 28–21 | Buckeye Valley | Bishop Hartley | 9.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–40 | Indian Lake | Indian Lake | 33.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 50–12 | Vinton County | Athens | 38.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–21 | 26–39 | Vermilion | Vermilion | 10.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–20 | 0–42 | Milan Edison | Milan Edison | 38.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 17–56 | Maumee | Genoa | 39.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 7–42 | West Holmes | West Holmes | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–27 | 28–61 | Van Wert | Van Wert | 20.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–19 | 35–10 | Copley | Copley | 18.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–15 | 35–14 | Tiffin Columbian | Tiffin Columbian | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–20 | 20–31 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Holy Name | 18.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 35–14 | Pepper Pike Orange | West Geauga | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–27 | 7–38 | Norton | Norton | 22.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–27 | 12–41 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 24.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–19 | 14–42 | Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary | Elyria Catholic | 29.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–64 | Cloverleaf | Cloverleaf | 57.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 0–49 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 48.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–17 | 14–11 | Niles McKinley | Niles McKinley | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–16 | 35–0 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 29.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–24 | 0–42 | West Branch | West Branch | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–22 | 24–35 | Hubbard | Poland Seminary | 12.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–19 | 27–7 | Howland | Howland | 15.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–15 | 14–16 | hARVEY | Lutheran West | 9.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–15 | 21–14 | Geneva | Geneva | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–20 | 39–21 | Dover | Dover | 15.9 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
