Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Champion vs. Garrettsville Garfield
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- Garrettsville Garfield
- Margin error
- 47.4
Sep 18, 2026
Buckeye Local vs. Steubenville Catholic Central
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 8–20
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Local
- Margin error
- 14.0
Sep 18, 2026
Berkshire vs. Crestwood
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Berkshire
- Margin error
- 6.7
Sep 18, 2026
Beachwood vs. Wickliffe
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 14–50
- Projected winner
- Wickliffe
- Margin error
- 33.0
Sep 18, 2026
Waverly vs. Portsmouth West
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 27.4
Sep 18, 2026
Urbana vs. North Union
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 34–33
- Projected winner
- Urbana
- Margin error
- 0.7
Sep 18, 2026
Unioto vs. Westfall
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 43–7
- Projected winner
- Unioto
- Margin error
- 27.9
Sep 18, 2026
Taylor vs. Wyoming
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 13–21
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 4.4
Sep 18, 2026
Oakwood vs. Waynesville
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 56–28
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 22.2
Sep 18, 2026
Norwood vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Margin error
- 26.4
Sep 18, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Dayton Northridge
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 13–28
- Projected winner
- Dayton Northridge
- Margin error
- 13.3
Sep 18, 2026
Kenton Ridge vs. Springfield Northwestern
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 33.5
Sep 18, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 39.0
Sep 18, 2026
Hillsboro vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Williamsburg
- Margin error
- 33.2
Sep 18, 2026
Eaton vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Valley View
- Margin error
- 40.3
Sep 18, 2026
Batavia vs. Bethel-Tate
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 24–20
- Projected winner
- Batavia
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 18, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. Reedsville Eastern
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–28
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 3.9
Sep 18, 2026
Philo vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 18.7
Sep 18, 2026
Maysville vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 20–19
- Projected winner
- Crooksville
- Margin error
- 8.4
Sep 18, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Liberty Union
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 33–14
- Projected winner
- Logan Elm
- Margin error
- 13.8
Sep 18, 2026
Licking Valley vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 12.6
Sep 18, 2026
John Glenn vs. Meadowbrook
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 31–0
- Projected winner
- Meadowbrook
- Margin error
- 33.4
Sep 18, 2026
Indian Creek vs. Brooke
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 15–6
- Projected winner
- Indian Creek
- Margin error
- 2.6
Sep 18, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 8–26
- Projected winner
- Fairland
- Margin error
- 10.8
Sep 18, 2026
Circleville vs. McClain
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 15.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–25 | 0–53 | Garrettsville Garfield | Garrettsville Garfield | 47.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–18 | 8–20 | Buckeye Local | Steubenville Catholic Central | 14.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–21 | 28–21 | Berkshire | Berkshire | 6.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 14–50 | Wickliffe | Wickliffe | 33.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–28 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 27.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–24 | 34–33 | Urbana | Urbana | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–17 | 43–7 | Unioto | Unioto | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–29 | 13–21 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 4.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–21 | 56–28 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 22.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–25 | 0–35 | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 26.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–19 | 13–28 | Dayton Northridge | Dayton Northridge | 13.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–16 | 49–7 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 33.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–21 | 48–7 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 39.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–21 | 14–49 | Williamsburg | Williamsburg | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–49 | Valley View | Valley View | 40.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–15 | 24–20 | Batavia | Batavia | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–28 | Reedsville Eastern | Reedsville Eastern | 3.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–25 | 21–42 | West Muskingum | West Muskingum | 18.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–24 | 20–19 | Crooksville | Maysville | 8.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–16 | 33–14 | Logan Elm | Logan Elm | 13.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–22 | 28–13 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 12.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–22 | 31–0 | Meadowbrook | John Glenn | 33.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–15 | 15–6 | Indian Creek | Indian Creek | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–24 | 8–26 | Fairland | Fairland | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–27 | 28–21 | McClain | Circleville | 15.4 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
