Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Champion vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 17–21
- Projected winner
- LaBrae
- Margin error
- 1.2
Sep 25, 2026
Buckeye Local vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 14–41
- Projected winner
- Oak Glen
- Margin error
- 19.7
Sep 25, 2026
Cardinal Mooney vs. St. Francis
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 22–34
- Projected winner
- St. Francis
- Margin error
- 7.7
Sep 25, 2026
Berkshire vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 26–15
- Projected winner
- Berkshire
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 25, 2026
Beachwood vs. Brooklyn
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 14–12
- Projected winner
- Beachwood
- Margin error
- 2.6
Sep 25, 2026
Wyoming vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 29–17
- Final
- 45–10
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 25, 2026
Waynesville vs. Dayton Christian
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 42–14
- Projected winner
- Dayton Christian
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 25, 2026
Waverly vs. Oak Hill
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Waverly
- Margin error
- 41.2
Sep 25, 2026
Unioto vs. Adena
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 39–0
- Projected winner
- Unioto
- Margin error
- 29.9
Sep 25, 2026
Oakwood vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 29–19
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 29.5
Sep 25, 2026
Springfield Northwestern vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 0–32
- Projected winner
- Springfield Northwestern
- Margin error
- 33.7
Sep 25, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 27.7
Sep 25, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 22–0
- Projected winner
- Milton-Union
- Margin error
- 18.8
Sep 25, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Taylor
- Projected
- 30–14
- Final
- 45–0
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 29.6
Sep 25, 2026
Hillsboro vs. Washington CH
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 55–61
- Projected winner
- Washington CH
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 25, 2026
Graham Local vs. Benjamin Logan
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 32–24
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 7.3
Sep 25, 2026
Eaton vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Eaton
- Margin error
- 30.0
Sep 25, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. Norwood
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 21–15
- Projected winner
- Bethel-Tate
- Margin error
- 5.3
Sep 25, 2026
Vinton County vs. Alexander
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 36–28
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 6.8
Sep 25, 2026
Union Local vs. Martins Ferry
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 20–45
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 21.1
Sep 25, 2026
St. Clairsville vs. Wheeling Park
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Park
- Margin error
- 45.3
Sep 25, 2026
River View vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Crooksville
- Margin error
- 42.1
Sep 25, 2026
Meadowbrook vs. Philo
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 6–38
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 25.1
Sep 25, 2026
Maysville vs. Coshocton
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- Maysville
- Margin error
- 42.3
Sep 25, 2026
Marion Franklin vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 27–8
- Projected winner
- Marion Franklin
- Margin error
- 8.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–21 | 17–21 | LaBrae | LaBrae | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–24 | 14–41 | Oak Glen | Oak Glen | 19.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–26 | 22–34 | St. Francis | St. Francis | 7.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–19 | 26–15 | Berkshire | Berkshire | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–16 | 14–12 | Beachwood | Beachwood | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–17 | 45–10 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–25 | 42–14 | Dayton Christian | Waynesville | 30.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–15 | 49–0 | Waverly | Waverly | 41.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–18 | 39–0 | Unioto | Unioto | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–19 | 14–34 | Oakwood | Valley View | 29.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–17 | 0–32 | Springfield Northwestern | Springfield Shawnee | 33.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 0–38 | Miami East | Miami East | 27.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–15 | 22–0 | Milton-Union | Milton-Union | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 30–14 | 45–0 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–22 | 55–61 | Washington CH | Washington CH | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–24 | 32–24 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 7.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–7 | Eaton | Eaton | 30.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–17 | 21–15 | Bethel-Tate | Bethel-Tate | 5.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 36–28 | Vinton County | Vinton County | 6.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–27 | 20–45 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 49–7 | Wheeling Park | St. Clairsville | 45.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–22 | 0–49 | Crooksville | Crooksville | 42.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–25 | 6–38 | Philo | Philo | 25.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–18 | 44–0 | Maysville | Maysville | 42.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–15 | 27–8 | Marion Franklin | Marion Franklin | 8.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
