Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Linden McKinley vs. Grandview Heights
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 46–7
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 36.0
Sep 25, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Johnstown Northridge
- Margin error
- 17.0
Sep 25, 2026
John Glenn vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 27–28
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 3.7
Sep 25, 2026
Indian Valley vs. WL Ridgewood
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 21–7
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 7.8
Sep 25, 2026
Indian Creek vs. Bellaire
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 28–37
- Projected winner
- Bellaire
- Margin error
- 7.9
Sep 25, 2026
Heath vs. Utica
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 34–3
- Projected winner
- Heath
- Margin error
- 29.2
Sep 25, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Coal Grove
- Projected
- 15–21
- Final
- 33–13
- Projected winner
- Coal Grove
- Margin error
- 26.1
Sep 25, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. Liberty Union
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Union
- Margin error
- 39.7
Sep 25, 2026
Claymont vs. Sandy Valley
- Projected
- 28–17
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 36.4
Sep 25, 2026
Bloom-Carroll vs. Logan Elm
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 34–20
- Projected winner
- Bloom-Carroll
- Margin error
- 12.0
Sep 25, 2026
Bexley vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 0–20
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 13.2
Sep 25, 2026
Wauseon vs. Delta
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 6–48
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 35.3
Sep 25, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 10–32
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 15.1
Sep 25, 2026
Ontario vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 42–28
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 8.9
Sep 25, 2026
Keystone vs. Black River
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Keystone
- Margin error
- 33.4
Sep 25, 2026
Huron vs. Port Clinton
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 21–35
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 25, 2026
Galion vs. Highland
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- Galion
- Margin error
- 6.7
Sep 25, 2026
Clyde vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 22–62
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 29.9
Sep 25, 2026
Clearview vs. Firelands
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 16–48
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 28.3
Sep 25, 2026
Bryan vs. Evergreen
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 27–5
- Projected winner
- Bryan
- Margin error
- 21.2
Sep 25, 2026
Brookside vs. Columbia
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 20–55
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 28.6
Sep 25, 2026
Bellevue vs. Milan Edison
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 42–10
- Projected winner
- Bellevue
- Margin error
- 30.5
Sep 25, 2026
Poland Seminary vs. South Range
- Projected
- 19–28
- Final
- 7–47
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 30.8
Sep 25, 2026
Minerva vs. Salem
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 14–38
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 15.5
Sep 25, 2026
Hawken vs. Pepper Pike Orange
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 53–21
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 32.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–20 | 46–7 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–21 | 7–28 | Johnstown Northridge | Johnstown Northridge | 17.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–26 | 27–28 | West Muskingum | West Muskingum | 3.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–21 | 21–7 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–21 | 28–37 | Bellaire | Bellaire | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–20 | 34–3 | Heath | Heath | 29.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–21 | 33–13 | Coal Grove | Gallia Academy | 26.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–17 | 44–0 | Fairfield Union | Fairfield Union | 39.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–17 | 48–0 | Claymont | Claymont | 36.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–19 | 34–20 | Bloom-Carroll | Bloom-Carroll | 12.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–25 | 0–20 | Columbus Academy | Columbus Academy | 13.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 6–48 | Delta | Delta | 35.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–26 | 10–32 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 15.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–20 | 42–28 | Ontario | Ontario | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–18 | 48–7 | Keystone | Keystone | 33.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–29 | 21–35 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–19 | 21–24 | Galion | Highland | 6.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 22–62 | Perkins | Perkins | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–21 | 16–48 | Firelands | Firelands | 28.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–17 | 27–5 | Bryan | Bryan | 21.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–26 | 20–55 | Columbia | Columbia | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–22 | 42–10 | Bellevue | Bellevue | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–28 | 7–47 | South Range | South Range | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–25 | 14–38 | Salem | Salem | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–21 | 53–21 | Pepper Pike Orange | Hawken | 32.5 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
