Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Springboro vs. Mason
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Springboro
- Margin error
- 32.3
Aug 21, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Bowling Green
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 36.7
Aug 21, 2026
Northmont vs. Lebanon
- Projected
- 13–25
- Final
- 17–38
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 8.3
Aug 21, 2026
Middletown vs. Elder
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 3–35
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 28.1
Aug 21, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 44–14
- Projected winner
- Chaminade Julienne
- Margin error
- 36.0
Aug 21, 2026
Marysville vs. Westerville North
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 9–31
- Projected winner
- Marysville
- Margin error
- 27.0
Aug 21, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 13–20
- Projected winner
- Dublin Jerome
- Margin error
- 9.4
Aug 21, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Bishop Hartley
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 51–27
- Projected winner
- Bishop Hartley
- Margin error
- 31.2
Aug 21, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Buckeye Valley
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 21–7
- Projected winner
- Delaware Hayes
- Margin error
- 12.9
Aug 21, 2026
Centerville vs. Lakota East
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 14–41
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 21, 2026
Strongsville vs. Avon Lake
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 24–22
- Projected winner
- Avon Lake
- Margin error
- 2.1
Aug 21, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 34–36
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 4.7
Aug 21, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Olentangy Liberty
- Projected
- 28–19
- Final
- 15–12
- Projected winner
- Lakewood St. Edward
- Margin error
- 6.0
Aug 21, 2026
Solon vs. Kenston
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 9–26
- Projected winner
- Kenston
- Margin error
- 5.9
Aug 21, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Geneva
- Margin error
- 21.1
Aug 21, 2026
Mentor vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 29–20
- Final
- 38–17
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 11.3
Aug 21, 2026
Medina vs. Findlay
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Findlay
- Margin error
- 17.1
Aug 21, 2026
Lorain vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 28–48
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 18.9
Aug 21, 2026
GlenOak vs. Dover
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 21–36
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 2.7
Aug 21, 2026
Euclid vs. Brush
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 14–6
- Projected winner
- Brush
- Margin error
- 11.4
Aug 21, 2026
Elyria vs. Mayfield
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 10–55
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 40.7
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 6–28
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 21, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Warren G. Harding
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 28.4
Aug 21, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Brunswick
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 42–47
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 15.6
Aug 20, 2026
Cardinal vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- LaBrae
- Margin error
- 46.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–21 | 33–0 | Springboro | Springboro | 32.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–19 | 42–0 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–25 | 17–38 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 8.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–25 | 3–35 | Elder | Elder | 28.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–22 | 44–14 | Chaminade Julienne | Miamisburg | 36.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–17 | 9–31 | Marysville | Westerville North | 27.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–20 | 13–20 | Dublin Jerome | Westerville South | 9.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–24 | 51–27 | Bishop Hartley | Dublin Coffman | 31.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–21 | 21–7 | Delaware Hayes | Delaware Hayes | 12.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–28 | 14–41 | Lakota East | Lakota East | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 24–22 | Avon Lake | Strongsville | 2.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 34–36 | Aurora | Aurora | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 28–19 | 15–12 | Lakewood St. Edward | Lakewood St. Edward | 6.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–26 | 9–26 | Kenston | Kenston | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–29 | 28–21 | Geneva | Shaker Heights | 21.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 29–20 | 38–17 | Mentor | Mentor | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–27 | Findlay | Findlay | 17.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–23 | 28–48 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–26 | 21–36 | Dover | Dover | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–22 | 14–6 | Brush | Euclid | 11.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–20 | 10–55 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 40.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–26 | 6–28 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–20 | 33–0 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–16 | 42–47 | Berea-Midpark | Brunswick | 15.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 18–20 | 0–49 | LaBrae | LaBrae | 46.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
