Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Westlake vs. Clearview
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 57–18
- Projected winner
- Clearview
- Margin error
- 40.6
Aug 28, 2026
Amherst Steele vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 38–21
- Projected winner
- Amherst Steele
- Margin error
- 5.4
Aug 28, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Bishop Dwenger
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Toledo St. Francis
- Margin error
- 42.5
Aug 28, 2026
Holland Springfield vs. Northview
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Holland Springfield
- Margin error
- 28.4
Aug 28, 2026
Normandy vs. Ravenna
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–55
- Projected winner
- Ravenna
- Margin error
- 48.2
Aug 28, 2026
Midview vs. North Olmsted
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 28–26
- Projected winner
- Midview
- Margin error
- 4.3
Aug 28, 2026
Rhodes vs. Lakewood
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 26–27
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 8.8
Aug 28, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Sandusky
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 51–6
- Projected winner
- Fremont Ross
- Margin error
- 40.8
Aug 28, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Southview
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Southview
- Margin error
- 23.1
Aug 28, 2026
Brecksville vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 6–10
- Projected winner
- North Royalton
- Margin error
- 1.0
Aug 28, 2026
Bowsher vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 48.4
Aug 28, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 13–14
- Projected winner
- Avon Lake
- Margin error
- 4.8
Aug 28, 2026
Avon vs. Pine-Richland
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 18–48
- Projected winner
- Pine-Richland
- Margin error
- 26.7
Aug 28, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Toledo St. John's
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 0–25
- Projected winner
- Toledo St. John's
- Margin error
- 14.1
Aug 28, 2026
Warren G. Harding vs. Youngstown
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 20–12
- Projected winner
- Youngstown
- Margin error
- 8.1
Aug 28, 2026
University School vs. Bay
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 7.1
Aug 28, 2026
Painesville Riverside vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 40–13
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 28, 2026
Willoughby South vs. Kent Roosevelt
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 34–13
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 21.1
Aug 28, 2026
Eastlake North vs. Valley Forge
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 32.9
Aug 28, 2026
Nordonia vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 46–12
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 26.6
Aug 28, 2026
Mayfield vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 31–13
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 18.2
Aug 28, 2026
Madison vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 36–24
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 24.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lakeside vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Lakeside
- Margin error
- 38.7
Aug 28, 2026
Firestone vs. Copley
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–56
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 42.2
Aug 28, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 39–37
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 2.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 57–18 | Clearview | Westlake | 40.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–16 | 38–21 | Amherst Steele | Amherst Steele | 5.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–19 | 0–35 | Toledo St. Francis | Bishop Dwenger | 42.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 41–7 | Holland Springfield | Holland Springfield | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–55 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 48.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 28–26 | Midview | Midview | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–27 | 26–27 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 51–6 | Fremont Ross | Fremont Ross | 40.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 35–14 | Southview | Oregon Clay | 23.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 6–10 | North Royalton | North Royalton | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 7–56 | Genoa | Genoa | 48.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 13–14 | Avon Lake | Mentor Lake Catholic | 4.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–25 | 18–48 | Pine-Richland | Pine-Richland | 26.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–26 | 0–25 | Toledo St. John's | Toledo St. John's | 14.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 20–12 | Youngstown | Warren G. Harding | 8.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 28–14 | 35–14 | University School | University School | 7.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 40–13 | Aurora | Painesville Riverside | 33.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 34–13 | Kent Roosevelt | Willoughby South | 21.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 42–0 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 32.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–19 | 46–12 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 31–13 | Elyria Catholic | Mayfield | 18.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 14–27 | 36–24 | Maple Heights | Madison | 24.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 6–41 | Lakeside | Geneva | 38.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–56 | Copley | Copley | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 39–37 | Cardinal Mooney | Garfield Heights | 2.5 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
