Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Mansfield Madison vs. River Valley
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 41–12
- Projected winner
- Mansfield Madison
- Margin error
- 25.9
Aug 28, 2026
Holy Name vs. Gilmour Academy
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 0–7
- Projected winner
- Holy Name
- Margin error
- 14.0
Aug 28, 2026
Defiance vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 28, 2026
Tiffin Columbian vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 26.0
Aug 28, 2026
Cloverleaf vs. Keystone
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 10–12
- Projected winner
- Keystone
- Margin error
- 1.7
Aug 28, 2026
Bowling Green vs. Bryan
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 28–22
- Projected winner
- Bryan
- Margin error
- 8.8
Aug 28, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 36–35
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 2.8
Aug 28, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Minerva
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 32.0
Aug 28, 2026
ND Cathedral Latin vs. West Geauga
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 0–7
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 11.9
Aug 28, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. Youngstown Liberty
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 20.0
Aug 28, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 21.6
Aug 28, 2026
Marlington vs. Canal Fulton Northwest
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 21–36
- Projected winner
- Marlington
- Margin error
- 15.6
Aug 28, 2026
Louisville vs. Ursuline
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 10–43
- Projected winner
- Louisville
- Margin error
- 40.5
Aug 28, 2026
Kenston vs. Perry
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 12–45
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 32.7
Aug 28, 2026
Howland vs. Hubbard
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 34–26
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 1.4
Aug 28, 2026
hARVEY vs. Ashtabula Edgewood
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 41–52
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 12.6
Aug 28, 2026
Dover vs. Steubenville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–44
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 29.1
Aug 28, 2026
Coventry vs. Rittman
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Rittman
- Margin error
- 24.5
Aug 28, 2026
Canfield vs. Salem
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 17–21
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 0.0
Aug 28, 2026
Buchtel vs. Indian Valley
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 12–42
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 19.1
Aug 28, 2026
Withrow vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 45–12
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 25.7
Aug 28, 2026
West Carrollton vs. Greenville
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 14–36
- Projected winner
- West Carrollton
- Margin error
- 28.7
Aug 28, 2026
Troy vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 10–6
- Projected winner
- Xenia
- Margin error
- 6.5
Aug 28, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Archbishop Carroll
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 23–32
- Projected winner
- Tecumseh
- Margin error
- 14.3
Aug 28, 2026
Teays Valley vs. Bloom-Carroll
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Bloom-Carroll
- Margin error
- 24.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–18 | 41–12 | Mansfield Madison | Mansfield Madison | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 0–7 | Holy Name | Gilmour Academy | 14.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 21–42 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–19 | 35–7 | Tiffin Columbian | Tiffin Columbian | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 10–12 | Keystone | Keystone | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–20 | 28–22 | Bryan | Bowling Green | 8.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 36–35 | Streetsboro | Streetsboro | 2.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 7–40 | Minerva | Minerva | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–20 | 0–7 | ND Cathedral Latin | West Geauga | 11.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 7–34 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 7–35 | West Branch | West Branch | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 21–36 | Marlington | Canal Fulton Northwest | 15.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 10–43 | Louisville | Ursuline | 40.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 12–45 | Perry | Perry | 32.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 34–26 | Howland | Howland | 1.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 41–52 | hARVEY | Ashtabula Edgewood | 12.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–44 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 29.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–27 | 0–35 | Rittman | Rittman | 24.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 17–21 | Salem | Salem | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–26 | 12–42 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 45–12 | Withrow | Withrow | 25.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 14–36 | West Carrollton | Greenville | 28.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 10–6 | Xenia | Troy | 6.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–18 | 23–32 | Tecumseh | Archbishop Carroll | 14.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 35–14 | Bloom-Carroll | Teays Valley | 24.6 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
