Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Huron vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 43–42
- Projected winner
- Vermilion
- Margin error
- 13.5
Oct 9, 2026
Firelands vs. Wellington
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 28.6
Oct 9, 2026
Milan Edison vs. Port Clinton
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 16–51
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 30.4
Oct 9, 2026
Clear Fork vs. Highland
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Clear Fork
- Margin error
- 3.3
Oct 9, 2026
Bryan vs. Wauseon
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 28–34
- Projected winner
- Bryan
- Margin error
- 7.9
Oct 9, 2026
Brookside vs. Black River
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 36–28
- Projected winner
- Brookside
- Margin error
- 3.2
Oct 9, 2026
Canal Fulton Northwest vs. Tuslaw
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 55–32
- Projected winner
- Canal Fulton Northwest
- Margin error
- 20.9
Oct 9, 2026
Minerva vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 7–50
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 39.2
Oct 9, 2026
Hawken vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 34–9
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 14.1
Oct 9, 2026
Girard vs. Poland Seminary
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 35–31
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 3.3
Oct 9, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 39.6
Oct 9, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Berkshire
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 25–24
- Projected winner
- Berkshire
- Margin error
- 4.0
Oct 9, 2026
Canton South vs. Fairless
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–39
- Projected winner
- Fairless
- Margin error
- 24.8
Oct 9, 2026
Beaver vs. Indian Creek
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Indian Creek
- Margin error
- 24.2
Oct 9, 2026
Wapakoneta vs. Kenton
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Kenton
- Margin error
- 42.8
Oct 9, 2026
Lima Shawnee vs. St. Marys Memorial
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 31–42
- Projected winner
- St. Marys Memorial
- Margin error
- 6.2
Oct 9, 2026
Mount Healthy vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 37.8
Oct 9, 2026
Greenville vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 0–65
- Projected winner
- Tippecanoe
- Margin error
- 53.7
Oct 9, 2026
Goshen vs. Clinton-Massie
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 27–23
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 3.0
Oct 9, 2026
Franklin vs. Ross
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Ross
- Margin error
- 41.9
Oct 9, 2026
Celina vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Celina
- Margin error
- 32.5
Oct 9, 2026
Bishop Fenwick vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 27–14
- Final
- 10–14
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 16.6
Oct 9, 2026
Bellbrook vs. Monroe
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 56–0
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 60.6
Oct 9, 2026
Hamilton Badin vs. Archbishop Carroll
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 49–20
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 18.4
Oct 9, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Alter
- Margin error
- 14.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–27 | 43–42 | Vermilion | Huron | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–17 | 42–7 | Firelands | Firelands | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–24 | 16–51 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 30.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–21 | 20–14 | Clear Fork | Clear Fork | 3.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–18 | 28–34 | Bryan | Wauseon | 7.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–14 | 36–28 | Brookside | Brookside | 3.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–21 | 55–32 | Canal Fulton Northwest | Canal Fulton Northwest | 20.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–24 | 7–50 | West Branch | West Branch | 39.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–14 | 34–9 | Hawken | Hawken | 14.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–20 | 35–31 | Girard | Girard | 3.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–22 | 41–0 | East Liverpool | East Liverpool | 39.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–23 | 25–24 | Berkshire | Chagrin Falls | 4.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–39 | Fairless | Fairless | 24.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–23 | 0–27 | Indian Creek | Indian Creek | 24.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–22 | 42–0 | Kenton | Wapakoneta | 42.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–24 | 31–42 | St. Marys Memorial | St. Marys Memorial | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–28 | 0–49 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 37.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 0–65 | Tippecanoe | Tippecanoe | 53.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–20 | 27–23 | Goshen | Goshen | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–42 | Ross | Ross | 41.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–17 | 42–0 | Celina | Celina | 32.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–14 | 10–14 | Bishop Fenwick | Chaminade Julienne | 16.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–26 | 56–0 | Monroe | Bellbrook | 60.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–14 | 49–20 | Hamilton Badin | Hamilton Badin | 18.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–23 | 7–20 | Archbishop Alter | Archbishop McNicholas | 14.4 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
