Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Centerville vs. Fairmont
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 7–22
- Projected winner
- Centerville
- Margin error
- 15.2
Sep 11, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Northmont
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 37–10
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 20.7
Sep 11, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. Walsh Jesuit
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 24–31
- Projected winner
- Walsh Jesuit
- Margin error
- 6.6
Sep 11, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Archbishop Hoban
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 17–14
- Projected winner
- Lakewood St. Edward
- Margin error
- 6.0
Sep 11, 2026
Medina vs. Stow-Munroe Falls
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 46–40
- Projected winner
- Stow-Munroe Falls
- Margin error
- 14.4
Sep 11, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Warren G. Harding
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 44–37
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 5.0
Sep 11, 2026
Euclid vs. Lorain
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 56–21
- Projected winner
- Lorain
- Margin error
- 41.0
Sep 11, 2026
Elyria vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 13–35
- Projected winner
- Olmsted Falls
- Margin error
- 16.6
Sep 11, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Strongsville
- Projected
- 14–24
- Final
- 18–45
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 11, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. GlenOak
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 32.8
Sep 11, 2026
Brunswick vs. Mentor
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 18–63
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 47.2
Sep 11, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 4.1
Sep 10, 2026
Beachwood vs. Fairport Harding
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 12–22
- Projected winner
- Beachwood
- Margin error
- 21.4
Sep 10, 2026
Bexley vs. Grandview Heights
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 14–3
- Projected winner
- Grandview Heights
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 10, 2026
Pepper Pike Orange vs. Lutheran West
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 32–24
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 0.6
Sep 10, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 17–16
- Projected winner
- Chagrin Falls
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 10, 2026
Granville vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 14–36
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 21.2
Sep 10, 2026
West Geauga vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 26–27
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 1.7
Sep 10, 2026
Kenston vs. Copley
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 45–42
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 9.0
Sep 10, 2026
Whetstone vs. Beechcroft
- Projected
- 14–21
- Final
- 0–52
- Projected winner
- Beechcroft
- Margin error
- 45.5
Sep 10, 2026
Twinsburg vs. Revere
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 26–28
- Projected winner
- Revere
- Margin error
- 3.8
Sep 10, 2026
University School vs. Grand Valley
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 33–21
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 11.4
Sep 10, 2026
Akron North vs. St. Thomas Aquinas
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 6–7
- Projected winner
- St. Thomas Aquinas
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 10, 2026
Mayfield vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 30.5
Sep 10, 2026
Start vs. Scott
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 28–6
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 21.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–19 | 7–22 | Centerville | Fairmont | 15.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–18 | 37–10 | Beavercreek | Beavercreek | 20.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 24–31 | Walsh Jesuit | Walsh Jesuit | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–16 | 17–14 | Lakewood St. Edward | Lakewood St. Edward | 6.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–26 | 46–40 | Stow-Munroe Falls | Medina | 14.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–21 | 44–37 | Massillon Jackson | Massillon Jackson | 5.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–23 | 56–21 | Lorain | Euclid | 41.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–22 | 13–35 | Olmsted Falls | Olmsted Falls | 16.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 14–24 | 18–45 | Strongsville | Strongsville | 16.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 48–14 | Canton McKinley | Canton McKinley | 32.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–19 | 18–63 | Brunswick | Mentor | 47.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–21 | 20–14 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 4.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 26–15 | 12–22 | Beachwood | Fairport Harding | 21.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 18–23 | 14–3 | Grandview Heights | Bexley | 16.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 22–15 | 32–24 | Pepper Pike Orange | Pepper Pike Orange | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 21–19 | 17–16 | Chagrin Falls | Chagrin Falls | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 22–23 | 14–36 | Columbus Academy | Columbus Academy | 21.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 21–24 | 26–27 | Hawken | Hawken | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 19–25 | 45–42 | Copley | Kenston | 9.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 14–21 | 0–52 | Beechcroft | Beechcroft | 45.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 18–24 | 26–28 | Revere | Revere | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 22–21 | 33–21 | University School | University School | 11.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 19–20 | 6–7 | St. Thomas Aquinas | St. Thomas Aquinas | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 27–17 | 40–0 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 19–18 | 28–6 | Start | Start | 21.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
