Games evaluated
351
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:52 AM EDT
Performance summary
351 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
61.0%
214 correct
Average margin error
23.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.4
Per-team points
Brier score
0.229
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
10.8%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 351
- Winner accuracy
- 61.0%
- Margin error
- 23.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–19% | 13 | 17.5% | 23.1% | +5.6 | 0.191 |
| 20–29% | 32 | 26.6% | 25.0% | -1.6 | 0.190 |
| 30–39% | 53 | 35.0% | 37.7% | +2.7 | 0.230 |
| 40–49% | 96 | 45.6% | 49.0% | +3.3 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 54 | 55.1% | 51.9% | -3.2 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 51 | 65.0% | 62.7% | -2.2 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 45 | 74.6% | 73.3% | -1.2 | 0.192 |
| 80–89% | 7 | 82.9% | 71.4% | -11.4 | 0.213 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 78 | 74.4% | 25.2 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 points |
| Close Game | 273 | 57.5% | 23.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 253 | 55.7% | 22.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Wayne Trace vs. Spencerville | 18–19 | 55–0 | 56.2 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Hanoverton United
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 31–28
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 5.2
Aug 28, 2026
Campbell Memorial vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 14–7
- Projected winner
- Campbell Memorial
- Margin error
- 5.1
Aug 28, 2026
LaBrae vs. Pymatuning Valley
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 40–30
- Projected winner
- LaBrae
- Margin error
- 8.6
Aug 28, 2026
Hillsdale vs. Lucas
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 19.0
Aug 28, 2026
East Canton vs. BC Western Reserve
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 36–20
- Projected winner
- BC Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 28.8
Aug 28, 2026
Columbiana vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 20–6
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 17.0
Aug 28, 2026
Canton Central Catholic vs. Mogadore
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 19–8
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 28, 2026
Brookfield vs. NM Springfield
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 35–18
- Projected winner
- NM Springfield
- Margin error
- 22.1
Aug 28, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Ansonia
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 8–40
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 28.8
Aug 28, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 71–7
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 53.8
Aug 28, 2026
Madeira vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Madeira
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 28, 2026
Finneytown vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 8–39
- Projected winner
- St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 28, 2026
East Clinton vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 12–55
- Projected winner
- Cedarville
- Margin error
- 42.5
Aug 28, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 28–49
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 14.2
Aug 28, 2026
Clark Montessori vs. Summit Country Day
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 8–17
- Projected winner
- Summit Country Day
- Margin error
- 7.2
Aug 28, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Versailles
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 10–20
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 13.0
Aug 28, 2026
Carlisle vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brookville vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 38–6
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 30.9
Aug 28, 2026
Blanchester vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 41–20
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
West Muskingum vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 20–42
- Projected winner
- West Muskingum
- Margin error
- 24.0
Aug 28, 2026
South Point vs. Racine Southern
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 33.6
Aug 28, 2026
Utica vs. Danville
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 13–39
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 19.1
Aug 28, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. South Gallia
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–12
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 2.9
Aug 28, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Portsmouth West
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 40.9
Aug 28, 2026
Piketon vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 43–8
- Projected winner
- Wellston
- Margin error
- 36.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 31–28 | Hanoverton United | Mineral Ridge | 5.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–18 | 14–7 | Campbell Memorial | Campbell Memorial | 5.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 40–30 | LaBrae | LaBrae | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 28–7 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 19.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–28 | 36–20 | BC Western Reserve | East Canton | 28.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 20–6 | Mathews | Columbiana | 17.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–23 | 19–8 | Mogadore | Canton Central Catholic | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–24 | 35–18 | NM Springfield | Brookfield | 22.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 8–40 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 71–7 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 53.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–19 | 27–0 | Madeira | Madeira | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 8–39 | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 12–55 | Cedarville | Cedarville | 42.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 28–49 | Miami Valley CA | Miami Valley CA | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 8–17 | Summit Country Day | Summit Country Day | 7.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–20 | 10–20 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Versailles | 13.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 7–20 | Miami East | Miami East | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 38–6 | Brookville | Brookville | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 41–20 | Cincinnati Country Day | Blanchester | 26.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 20–42 | West Muskingum | Fort Frye | 24.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 38–0 | South Point | South Point | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 13–39 | Danville | Danville | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–12 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–42 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 40.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 43–8 | Wellston | Piketon | 36.4 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
