Games evaluated
707
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:59 AM EDT
Performance summary
707 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
59.7%
422 correct
Average margin error
22.6
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.236
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
12.4%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 707
- Winner accuracy
- 59.7%
- Margin error
- 22.6
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 1 | 8.5% | 0.0% | -8.5 | 0.007 |
| 10–19% | 32 | 16.7% | 18.8% | +2.0 | 0.160 |
| 20–29% | 81 | 25.9% | 34.6% | +8.6 | 0.234 |
| 30–39% | 117 | 35.2% | 40.2% | +5.0 | 0.237 |
| 40–49% | 167 | 45.5% | 48.5% | +3.0 | 0.250 |
| 50–59% | 128 | 54.6% | 50.8% | -3.8 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 96 | 65.2% | 67.7% | +2.6 | 0.217 |
| 70–79% | 73 | 74.6% | 68.5% | -6.1 | 0.218 |
| 80–89% | 12 | 83.1% | 58.3% | -24.7 | 0.301 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 434 | 61.3% | 22.5 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 706 | 59.6% | 22.6 points |
| Close Game | 535 | 56.8% | 22.8 points |
| Upset Possible | 505 | 56.0% | 22.4 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Anna vs. Spencerville | 19–22 | 60–0 | 63.2 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Middletown vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
Northmont vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 6–38
- Projected winner
- LaSalle
- Margin error
- 25.0
Aug 28, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Trenton Edgewood
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–32
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 9.4
Aug 28, 2026
Marysville vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- KIPP Columbus
- Margin error
- 17.3
Aug 28, 2026
Fairmont vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 10.1
Aug 28, 2026
Findlay vs. Lima Senior
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 31–6
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 28.5
Aug 28, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Reynoldsburg
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 31–42
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 9.6
Aug 28, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Big Walnut
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Dublin Coffman
- Margin error
- 34.8
Aug 28, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Lancaster
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Delaware Hayes
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 28, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Cincinnati Woodward
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 37.9
Aug 28, 2026
Strongsville vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 27–31
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 11.8
Aug 28, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 44–13
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 31.9
Aug 28, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 9.4
Aug 28, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Solon
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 9–19
- Projected winner
- Shaker Heights
- Margin error
- 16.2
Aug 28, 2026
Medina vs. North Canton Hoover
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 14–18
- Projected winner
- North Canton Hoover
- Margin error
- 3.2
Aug 28, 2026
Mentor vs. McDowell
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 31–30
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 6.2
Aug 28, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Hudson
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 35–55
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 23.6
Aug 28, 2026
GlenOak vs. Massillon Washington
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 7–54
- Projected winner
- Massillon Washington
- Margin error
- 42.7
Aug 28, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Chardon
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–25
- Projected winner
- Chardon
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Lakewood St. Edward
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 8–22
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 15.5
Aug 28, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Euclid
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 43–33
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 8.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brunswick vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 46.1
Aug 27, 2026
Weir vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Oak Glen
- Margin error
- 29.9
Aug 27, 2026
Orchard Lake St. Mary vs. Muskegon Mona Shores
- Projected
- 26–23
- Final
- 35–27
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 4.8
Aug 27, 2026
Shroder vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 8–50
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 40.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–23 | 7–28 | Princeton | Princeton | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 6–38 | LaSalle | LaSalle | 25.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–32 | Miamisburg | Trenton Edgewood | 9.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 35–21 | KIPP Columbus | Marysville | 17.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–20 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 10.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–24 | 31–6 | Lima Senior | Findlay | 28.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 31–42 | Reynoldsburg | Reynoldsburg | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 7–39 | Dublin Coffman | Big Walnut | 34.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–13 | Delaware Hayes | Delaware Hayes | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 42–0 | Beavercreek | Beavercreek | 37.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–16 | 27–31 | Strongsville | Medina Highland | 11.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 44–13 | Barberton | Stow-Munroe Falls | 31.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 24–21 | Pickerington North | St. Ignatius | 9.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 9–19 | Shaker Heights | Solon | 16.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 14–18 | North Canton Hoover | North Canton Hoover | 3.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 31–30 | Mentor | Mentor | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–20 | 35–55 | Massillon Jackson | Hudson | 23.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 7–54 | Massillon Washington | Massillon Washington | 42.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–25 | Chardon | Chardon | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 8–22 | Canton McKinley | Lakewood St. Edward | 15.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 43–33 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–15 | 7–42 | Brunswick | Olmsted Falls | 46.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–35 | Oak Glen | Oak Glen | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 26–23 | 35–27 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 4.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 19–20 | 8–50 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 40.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
