Games evaluated
348
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 10, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 11, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
348 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
71.3%
248 correct
Average margin error
21.8
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.181
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
15.2%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 348
- Winner accuracy
- 71.3%
- Margin error
- 21.8
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 6 | 8.1% | 16.7% | +8.6 | 0.140 |
| 10–19% | 37 | 15.2% | 5.4% | -9.8 | 0.061 |
| 20–29% | 27 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.7 | 0.171 |
| 30–39% | 40 | 35.2% | 27.5% | -7.7 | 0.193 |
| 40–49% | 63 | 45.3% | 49.2% | +3.9 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 59 | 55.2% | 59.3% | +4.2 | 0.243 |
| 60–69% | 37 | 64.3% | 59.5% | -4.9 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 48 | 74.9% | 83.3% | +8.4 | 0.140 |
| 80–89% | 27 | 84.3% | 92.6% | +8.3 | 0.075 |
| 90–99% | 4 | 91.4% | 100.0% | +8.6 | 0.007 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 338 | 70.7% | 21.6 points |
| Medium | 10 | 90.0% | 28.3 points |
| Low | 0 | — | — |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Game | 210 | 59.5% | 19.5 points |
| Upset Possible | 199 | 59.3% | 19.4 points |
| Limited Data | 5 | 40.0% | 26.0 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bellbrook vs. Monroe | 21–26 | 56–0 | 60.6 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Norwalk vs. Perkins | 12–29 | 0–75 | 58.3 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erie Mason vs. Whiteford | 14–28 | 0–72 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Waterford vs. Federal Hocking | 25–15 | 68–0 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Blanchester vs. Williamsburg | 23–20 | 18–69 | 54.3 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Newark vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 10–49
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 47.2
Oct 9, 2026
Lancaster vs. Reynoldsburg
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 14–27
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 4.8
Oct 9, 2026
Hilliard Darby vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 28–31
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 6.1
Oct 9, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Pickerington Central
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 10–16
- Projected winner
- Pickerington Central
- Margin error
- 4.5
Oct 9, 2026
Grove City vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 10–28
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 19.7
Oct 9, 2026
Central Crossing vs. New Albany
- Projected
- 13–27
- Final
- 0–51
- Projected winner
- New Albany
- Margin error
- 36.8
Oct 9, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. Westerville Central
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 14.2
Oct 9, 2026
Start vs. Blackhawk Christian
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 36–15
- Projected winner
- Blackhawk Christian
- Margin error
- 23.8
Oct 9, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Hilliard Bradley
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Bradley
- Margin error
- 17.4
Oct 9, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Oregon Clay
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 41–13
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 26.8
Oct 9, 2026
Middletown vs. Lakota East
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 22–11
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 21.2
Oct 9, 2026
Marysville vs. Thomas Worthington
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Thomas Worthington
- Margin error
- 6.2
Oct 9, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 21–52
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 25.3
Oct 9, 2026
Fairmont vs. Springboro
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Springboro
- Margin error
- 4.5
Oct 9, 2026
Findlay vs. Whitmer
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 24–45
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 17.4
Oct 9, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 10–17
- Projected winner
- Dublin Jerome
- Margin error
- 10.7
Oct 9, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Hilliard Davidson
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Dublin Coffman
- Margin error
- 2.2
Oct 9, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Dublin Scioto
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 20–7
- Projected winner
- Dublin Scioto
- Margin error
- 13.2
Oct 9, 2026
Centerville vs. Northmont
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 42–17
- Projected winner
- Centerville
- Margin error
- 23.1
Oct 9, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Springfield
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 23.9
Oct 9, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. Moeller
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 21–43
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 20.6
Oct 9, 2026
Stow-Munroe Falls vs. Nordonia
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 14–45
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 9, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 63–46
- Projected winner
- Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Margin error
- 17.1
Oct 9, 2026
Solon vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 7–51
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 31.0
Oct 9, 2026
Mentor vs. Shaker Heights
- Projected
- 28–13
- Final
- 42–3
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 23.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–16 | 10–49 | Newark | Teays Valley | 47.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–25 | 14–27 | Reynoldsburg | Reynoldsburg | 4.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–20 | 28–31 | Hilliard Darby | Olentangy | 6.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–23 | 10–16 | Pickerington Central | Pickerington Central | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–23 | 10–28 | Grove City | Pickerington North | 19.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–27 | 0–51 | New Albany | New Albany | 36.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–20 | 34–14 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–19 | 36–15 | Blackhawk Christian | Start | 23.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–24 | 28–14 | Hilliard Bradley | Olentangy Liberty | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 41–13 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–27 | 22–11 | Lakota East | Middletown | 21.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–18 | 20–14 | Thomas Worthington | Marysville | 6.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–23 | 21–52 | Wayne | Wayne | 25.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–23 | 14–21 | Springboro | Springboro | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–26 | 24–45 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 17.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–19 | 10–17 | Dublin Jerome | Olentangy Berlin | 10.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–17 | 20–14 | Dublin Coffman | Dublin Coffman | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 20–7 | Dublin Scioto | Delaware Hayes | 13.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–18 | 42–17 | Centerville | Centerville | 23.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–21 | 0–21 | Beavercreek | Springfield | 23.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–25 | 21–43 | Moeller | Moeller | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–25 | 14–45 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–25 | 63–46 | Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS) | Lakewood St. Edward | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–29 | 7–51 | Medina Highland | Medina Highland | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–13 | 42–3 | Mentor | Mentor | 23.9 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
