Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Rhodes vs. Firelands
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Tiffin Columbian
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 22–21
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 1.7
Aug 21, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 27–23
- Final
- 27–9
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 14.3
Aug 21, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 27–21
- Projected winner
- Wapakoneta
- Margin error
- 6.3
Aug 21, 2026
Brecksville vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 16–7
- Projected winner
- Brecksville
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 21, 2026
Bowsher vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 13–47
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 33.6
Aug 21, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Bishop Watterson
- Projected
- 22–28
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 29.4
Aug 21, 2026
Walsh Jesuit vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 23–29
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 39.6
Aug 21, 2026
University School vs. Brookside
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 64–42
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 21, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Twinsburg
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 22–19
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 3.1
Aug 21, 2026
Painesville Riverside vs. Steubenville
- Projected
- 19–28
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 11.5
Aug 21, 2026
Eastlake North vs. North Olmsted
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 51–17
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 32.9
Aug 21, 2026
Akron North vs. Champion
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 12–39
- Projected winner
- Champion
- Margin error
- 24.8
Aug 21, 2026
Nordonia vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 33.9
Aug 21, 2026
Madison vs. Perry
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 21, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. Canfield
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 27–24
- Projected winner
- Garfield Heights
- Margin error
- 0.2
Aug 21, 2026
Ellet vs. Tallmadge
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Ellet
- Margin error
- 23.8
Aug 21, 2026
Firestone vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 21, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Willoughby South
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 26.5
Aug 21, 2026
John Hay vs. Pepper Pike Orange
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–26
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 12.2
Aug 21, 2026
Boardman vs. Youngstown
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 10–13
- Projected winner
- Boardman
- Margin error
- 12.4
Aug 21, 2026
Benedictine vs. Gilmour Academy
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 32–14
- Projected winner
- Gilmour Academy
- Margin error
- 22.6
Aug 21, 2026
Bedford vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Akron East
- Margin error
- 5.0
Aug 21, 2026
Austintown-Fitch vs. Hudson
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 19–24
- Projected winner
- Austintown-Fitch
- Margin error
- 7.4
Aug 21, 2026
West Clermont vs. Mount Healthy
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 42–12
- Projected winner
- Mount Healthy
- Margin error
- 39.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 7–21 | Firelands | Firelands | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 22–21 | Tiffin Columbian | Fremont Ross | 1.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–23 | 27–9 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–25 | 27–21 | Wapakoneta | Oregon Clay | 6.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 16–7 | Brecksville | Brecksville | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–20 | 13–47 | Otsego | Otsego | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–28 | 0–35 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 29.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–29 | 34–0 | Medina Highland | Walsh Jesuit | 39.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–18 | 64–42 | University School | University School | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–17 | 22–19 | Kent Roosevelt | Kent Roosevelt | 3.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–28 | 14–35 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 11.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–19 | 51–17 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 32.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–18 | 12–39 | Champion | Champion | 24.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–16 | 49–7 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 33.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–27 | 7–39 | Perry | Perry | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–22 | 27–24 | Garfield Heights | Garfield Heights | 0.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–18 | 0–21 | Ellet | Tallmadge | 23.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–19 | 6–41 | Barberton | Barberton | 33.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–22 | 0–34 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 26.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–26 | Pepper Pike Orange | Pepper Pike Orange | 12.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–17 | 10–13 | Boardman | Youngstown | 12.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–25 | 32–14 | Gilmour Academy | Benedictine | 22.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–12 | Akron East | Akron East | 5.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–23 | 19–24 | Austintown-Fitch | Hudson | 7.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 42–12 | Mount Healthy | West Clermont | 39.3 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
