Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Mentor vs. McDowell
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 31–30
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 6.2
Aug 28, 2026
Massillon Jackson vs. Hudson
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 35–55
- Projected winner
- Massillon Jackson
- Margin error
- 23.6
Aug 28, 2026
GlenOak vs. Massillon Washington
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 7–54
- Projected winner
- Massillon Washington
- Margin error
- 42.7
Aug 28, 2026
Cleveland Heights vs. Chardon
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–25
- Projected winner
- Chardon
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
Canton McKinley vs. Lakewood St. Edward
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 8–22
- Projected winner
- Canton McKinley
- Margin error
- 15.5
Aug 28, 2026
Berea-Midpark vs. Euclid
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 43–33
- Projected winner
- Berea-Midpark
- Margin error
- 8.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brunswick vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Brunswick
- Margin error
- 46.1
Aug 27, 2026
Weir vs. Oak Glen
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Oak Glen
- Margin error
- 29.9
Aug 27, 2026
Orchard Lake St. Mary vs. Muskegon Mona Shores
- Projected
- 26–23
- Final
- 35–27
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 4.8
Aug 27, 2026
Shroder vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 8–50
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 40.6
Aug 27, 2026
Perkins vs. Scott
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 58–6
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 43.8
Aug 22, 2026
Lucas vs. Steubenville Catholic Central
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 29–13
- Projected winner
- Lucas
- Margin error
- 15.5
Aug 22, 2026
Norwood vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 0–43
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 37.7
Aug 22, 2026
Fairborn vs. Tecumseh
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 31–7
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 23.4
Aug 22, 2026
Springfield vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 28–21
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Springfield
- Margin error
- 5.7
Aug 22, 2026
Springfield Northwestern vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Springfield Northwestern
- Margin error
- 15.5
Aug 22, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 0–51
- Projected winner
- Hebron Lakewood
- Margin error
- 52.2
Aug 22, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 17–16
- Projected winner
- Xenia
- Margin error
- 3.5
Aug 22, 2026
North Adams (club) vs. Peebles (club)
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 12–14
- Projected winner
- North Adams (club)
- Margin error
- 2.8
Aug 22, 2026
Cincinnati Eagles (club) vs. West Union (club)
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 14–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Eagles (club)
- Margin error
- 13.9
Aug 22, 2026
Fremont St. Joseph vs. Holgate
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 44–20
- Projected winner
- Holgate
- Margin error
- 31.3
Aug 22, 2026
McDonald vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 40.3
Aug 22, 2026
Chalker vs. Stryker
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 22–24
- Projected winner
- Stryker
- Margin error
- 0.5
Aug 22, 2026
Meigs vs. Reedsville Eastern
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 21–13
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 11.0
Aug 22, 2026
Kirtland vs. Taft
- Projected
- 29–23
- Final
- 51–6
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 38.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 31–30 | Mentor | Mentor | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–20 | 35–55 | Massillon Jackson | Hudson | 23.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 7–54 | Massillon Washington | Massillon Washington | 42.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–25 | Chardon | Chardon | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–21 | 8–22 | Canton McKinley | Lakewood St. Edward | 15.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 43–33 | Berea-Midpark | Berea-Midpark | 8.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 27–15 | 7–42 | Brunswick | Olmsted Falls | 46.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–35 | Oak Glen | Oak Glen | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 26–23 | 35–27 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 4.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 19–20 | 8–50 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 40.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 24–16 | 58–6 | Perkins | Perkins | 43.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 20–19 | 29–13 | Lucas | Lucas | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 16–21 | 0–43 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 37.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 19–18 | 31–7 | Fairborn | Fairborn | 23.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 28–21 | 14–13 | Springfield | Springfield | 5.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 19–18 | 6–20 | Springfield Northwestern | Southeastern Local | 15.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 20–19 | 0–51 | Hebron Lakewood | West Muskingum | 52.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 21–24 | 17–16 | Xenia | Beavercreek | 3.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 22–21 | 12–14 | North Adams (club) | Peebles (club) | 2.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 22–21 | 14–0 | Cincinnati Eagles (club) | Cincinnati Eagles (club) | 13.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 18–25 | 44–20 | Holgate | Fremont St. Joseph | 31.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 25–21 | 44–0 | McDonald | McDonald | 40.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 22–24 | 22–24 | Stryker | Stryker | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 21–24 | 21–13 | Reedsville Eastern | Meigs | 11.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 22, 2026 | 29–23 | 51–6 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 38.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.