Season Profile
- Record
- 0-10
- Coach
- Dominic Branch
- Football league
- Tri-Valley Conference - Hocking · OSPR 48.2
- Division
- Division 7
- Region
- Region 27
Federal Hocking Lancers (
0-10
)
Stewart, OH
2026 Team Snapshot
Model outlook updated Nov 4, 2026 8:47 AM · 10,000 simulations
OSPR Standing
26.8
Through Week 11
- Statewide
- #709
- Division
- #107
- Region
- #28
Previous: After Week 10
OSPR 26.9 · Statewide #708 · Division #106 · Region #27
Season Outlook
- Current Harbin points
- 0.00
- Projected regional seed
- #27
- Most likely record
- 0-10
- Expected wins
- 0.0
- Playoff qualification
- 0.0%
Next Opponent
No remaining opponent is scheduled for this season.
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios
Detailed OSPR rating
Team Rating
What is OSPR?OSPR
26.8
D
Tier
Rank
#112
Harbin
0.00
Falling
Confidence
100%
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1181
CalPreps
-3.70
FPI
-79.63
OSPR Season Outlook
Monte Carlo projections based on current OSPR ratings and Harbin rules.
Updated Nov 4, 2026 8:47 AM · 10,000 simulations
Regular Season Projections
- Most likely record
- 0–10
- Expected wins
- 0.0
- Average Harbin
- 0.00
- Likely regional seed
- #27
Harbin range: 0.00–0.00
The record is the most common result; Harbin points are averaged across all simulations.
Playoff Chances Now
- Qualify
- 0.0%
- Home position
- 0.0%
- First-round bye
- 0.0%
Top 12
Top 8
Top 4
Depending on the Next Game
No remaining game is available for a conditional projection.
2026 Schedule
OSPR percentages show Federal Hocking's chance to win.
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Historical backtest evidence · 2000–2025 Separate from live validation
Forfeits excluded
98,855 games replayed week by week using only earlier games for ratings. These are retrospective tests of base OSPR 2026.1, not forecasts published at the time or live validation of OSPR 2026.3. They do not add to a prediction's live comparable count.
Calibration by season stage
Main comparison: 85,030 Ohio-versus-Ohio games, 2002–2025, excluding 2020. The first two years are warmup seasons; the unusual 2020 season is reported outside this comparison.
| Season stage | Favorite picks | Forecast win rate | Actual win rate | Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early · Weeks 1–3 | 23,442 | 62.1% | 61.5% | 0.2282 |
| Middle · Weeks 4–6 | 23,747 | 66.2% | 69.3% | 0.1991 |
| Late · Weeks 7–10 | 31,973 | 68.7% | 75.4% | 0.1715 |
| Playoffs | 5,643 | 65.0% | 67.2% | 0.2112 |
Scroll the table to compare win rates. Win rates exclude exact 50/50 picks. Brier scores use all games in each stage; lower is better.
Middle and late season adjustment: forward checks
Brier score 0.1972 → 0.1949 across 74,103 games (2005–2025, excluding 2020). Each test season used an adjustment fitted on the previous five calendar years. Early season and playoff probabilities retained the base curve.
This tests the adjustment method. The fixed OSPR 2026.2 profile was fitted on 2021–2025; its live validation is tracked separately.
OSPR 2026.3 scoring model: chronological checks
Average error per team: 12.94 → 10.69 points. Brier score: 0.1949 → 0.1644. Paired comparison across 48,385 games, 2012–2025, excluding 2020.
Each season's score model used only the previous five calendar seasons. Its probability curve used earlier out-of-sample score forecasts, with forfeits excluded. The comparison uses the prior stage-calibration method; it does not apply the fixed 2026 profile to earlier years. These retrospective checks are separate from live validation. The fixed 2026.3 profile uses 2021–2025 data.
Historical training and evaluation exclude 248 forfeit or administrative fixtures, including 222 explicitly flagged forfeits. The model and stage choices were selected retrospectively. Corrected historical results and reviewed flags were held fixed; original result-publication and forfeit-announcement times are unavailable.
View model performance and historical evidence →
Final
Aug 21, 2026
32
3 ot
Pick: L by 1 (48.3%)
Projected score: 16–17
Awaiting live validation
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Aug 28, 2026
18
49
Pick: L by 6 (28.7%)
Projected score: 19–25
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 04, 2026
14
44
Pick: W by 1 (53.4%)
Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 11, 2026
46
6
Pick: L by 1 (44.9%)
Projected score: 18–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 18, 2026
14
Pick: L by 1 (45.5%)
Projected score: 18–19
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 17, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Sep 25, 2026
0
Belpre
(4-6)
39
Pick: L by 11 (17.4%)
Projected score: 14–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 24, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 02, 2026
48
0
Pick: L by 10 (22.8%)
Projected score: 14–24
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 09, 2026
68
0
Pick: L by 10 (20.7%)
Projected score: 15–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 16, 2026
0
54
Pick: L by 12 (16.9%)
Projected score: 13–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 15, 2026 10:35 AM
Final
Oct 23, 2026
14
Trimble
(3-7)
54
Pick: L by 11 (17.2%)
Projected score: 12–23
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 22, 2026 10:35 AM
| Date | Location | Opponent | Division | Result | Score | OSPR Prediction | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/21 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 32-38 |
Pick: L by 1 (48.3%) Projected score: 16–17
Awaiting live validation
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 20, 2026 10:35 AM |
3 ot | |
| 08/28 | A | Division 4, Region 15 | L | 18-49 |
Pick: L by 6 (28.7%) Projected score: 19–25
Low calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Aug 27, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/04 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 14-44 |
Pick: W by 1 (53.4%) Projected score: 21–20
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 3, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/11 | H | Division 6, Region 23 | L | 6-46 |
Pick: L by 1 (44.9%) Projected score: 18–19
High calibration
Limited Data
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 10, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/18 | H | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 14-48 |
Pick: L by 1 (45.5%) Projected score: 18–19
High calibration
Close Game
Upset Possible
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 17, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 09/25 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 0-39 |
Pick: L by 11 (17.4%) Projected score: 14–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Sep 24, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/02 | H | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 0-48 |
Pick: L by 10 (22.8%) Projected score: 14–24
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 1, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/09 | H | Division 6, Region 23 | L | 0-68 |
Pick: L by 10 (20.7%) Projected score: 15–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 8, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/16 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 0-54 |
Pick: L by 12 (16.9%) Projected score: 13–25
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 15, 2026 10:35 AM |
||
| 10/23 | A | Division 7, Region 27 | L | 14-54 |
Pick: L by 11 (17.2%) Projected score: 12–23
High calibration
Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 22, 2026 10:35 AM |
Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.
