Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Evergreen vs. Ottawa Hills
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 15–20
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 8.1
Aug 28, 2026
Delta vs. Fairview
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 43–30
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 15.2
Aug 28, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. Crestline
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 16–28
- Projected winner
- Ashland Crestview
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 28, 2026
Bucyrus vs. Riverdale
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 27–20
- Projected winner
- Riverdale
- Margin error
- 13.6
Aug 28, 2026
Archbold vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 41–15
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 25.3
Aug 28, 2026
Wickliffe vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Wickliffe
- Margin error
- 19.0
Aug 28, 2026
Wellington vs. Mapleton
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 22–40
- Projected winner
- Mapleton
- Margin error
- 16.1
Aug 28, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 19–8
- Projected winner
- St. Thomas Aquinas
- Margin error
- 10.7
Aug 28, 2026
Smithville vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 59–15
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 38.7
Aug 28, 2026
Newton Falls vs. Jackson-Milton
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 29.1
Aug 28, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Hanoverton United
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 31–28
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 5.2
Aug 28, 2026
Campbell Memorial vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 14–7
- Projected winner
- Campbell Memorial
- Margin error
- 5.1
Aug 28, 2026
LaBrae vs. Pymatuning Valley
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 40–30
- Projected winner
- LaBrae
- Margin error
- 8.6
Aug 28, 2026
Hillsdale vs. Lucas
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 19.0
Aug 28, 2026
East Canton vs. BC Western Reserve
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 36–20
- Projected winner
- BC Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 28.8
Aug 28, 2026
Columbiana vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 20–6
- Projected winner
- Mathews
- Margin error
- 17.0
Aug 28, 2026
Canton Central Catholic vs. Mogadore
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 19–8
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 28, 2026
Brookfield vs. NM Springfield
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 35–18
- Projected winner
- NM Springfield
- Margin error
- 22.1
Aug 28, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Ansonia
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 8–40
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 28.8
Aug 28, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 71–7
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 53.8
Aug 28, 2026
Madeira vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Madeira
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 28, 2026
Finneytown vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 8–39
- Projected winner
- St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 28, 2026
East Clinton vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 12–55
- Projected winner
- Cedarville
- Margin error
- 42.5
Aug 28, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 28–49
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 14.2
Aug 28, 2026
Clark Montessori vs. Summit Country Day
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 8–17
- Projected winner
- Summit Country Day
- Margin error
- 7.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–29 | 15–20 | Ottawa Hills | Ottawa Hills | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 43–30 | Fairview | Delta | 15.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–17 | 16–28 | Ashland Crestview | Crestline | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 27–20 | Riverdale | Bucyrus | 13.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 41–15 | Archbold | Archbold | 25.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–23 | 28–8 | Wickliffe | Wickliffe | 19.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 22–40 | Mapleton | Mapleton | 16.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 19–8 | St. Thomas Aquinas | St. Thomas Aquinas | 10.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 59–15 | Smithville | Smithville | 38.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 35–0 | Newton Falls | Newton Falls | 29.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 31–28 | Hanoverton United | Mineral Ridge | 5.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–18 | 14–7 | Campbell Memorial | Campbell Memorial | 5.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 40–30 | LaBrae | LaBrae | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–20 | 28–7 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 19.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–28 | 36–20 | BC Western Reserve | East Canton | 28.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 20–6 | Mathews | Columbiana | 17.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–23 | 19–8 | Mogadore | Canton Central Catholic | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–24 | 35–18 | NM Springfield | Brookfield | 22.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–23 | 8–40 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 28.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 71–7 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 53.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–19 | 27–0 | Madeira | Madeira | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 8–39 | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 12–55 | Cedarville | Cedarville | 42.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–25 | 28–49 | Miami Valley CA | Miami Valley CA | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 8–17 | Summit Country Day | Summit Country Day | 7.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
