Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 29–13
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 17.1
Sep 4, 2026
Kenton vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 22.5
Sep 4, 2026
Huron vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 20–48
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 18.4
Sep 4, 2026
Galion vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 28–24
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 9.5
Sep 4, 2026
Clearview vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Clearview
- Margin error
- 42.5
Sep 4, 2026
Bryan vs. Fairview
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 29–32
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 5.1
Sep 4, 2026
Brookside vs. Margaretta
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 48–58
- Projected winner
- Brookside
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 4, 2026
Bellevue vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 7–27
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 16.9
Sep 4, 2026
Struthers vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 8–34
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 16.0
Sep 4, 2026
Perry vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 31–10
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 20.4
Sep 4, 2026
Pepper Pike Orange vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 35–31
- Projected winner
- Pepper Pike Orange
- Margin error
- 1.5
Sep 4, 2026
Canal Fulton Northwest vs. Canton Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 30–21
- Projected winner
- Canal Fulton Northwest
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 4, 2026
Minerva vs. Sandy Valley
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 35–27
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 1.4
Sep 4, 2026
Lakeview vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 21–10
- Projected winner
- Jefferson Area
- Margin error
- 12.6
Sep 4, 2026
Glenville vs. Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 37–21
- Projected winner
- Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Margin error
- 17.6
Sep 4, 2026
Gilmour Academy vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 26–21
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 12.2
Sep 4, 2026
Field vs. Poland Seminary
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Field
- Margin error
- 50.7
Sep 4, 2026
Fairless vs. Claymont
- Projected
- 26–23
- Final
- 10–27
- Projected winner
- Fairless
- Margin error
- 19.3
Sep 4, 2026
Ashtabula Edgewood vs. Conneaut
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 17–20
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula Edgewood
- Margin error
- 7.5
Sep 4, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Salem
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 21–52
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 33.0
Sep 4, 2026
Cuyahoga Valley CA vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 1.6
Sep 4, 2026
Beaver vs. St. Clairsville
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- Beaver
- Margin error
- 9.4
Sep 4, 2026
Cincinnati Woodward vs. Reading
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–48
- Projected winner
- Reading
- Margin error
- 47.3
Sep 4, 2026
Cincinnati Northwest vs. Ross
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 14–12
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 1.9
Sep 4, 2026
New Richmond vs. Indian Hill
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 14–56
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 44.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–24 | 29–13 | Oak Harbor | Port Clinton | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 13–29 | 7–45 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–25 | 20–48 | Genoa | Genoa | 18.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–25 | 28–24 | Bishop Ready | Galion | 9.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 0–42 | Clearview | Vermilion | 42.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–24 | 29–32 | Fairview | Fairview | 5.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–17 | 48–58 | Brookside | Margaretta | 17.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–26 | 7–27 | Shelby | Shelby | 16.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–27 | 8–34 | West Branch | West Branch | 16.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–24 | 31–10 | Perry | Perry | 20.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–17 | 35–31 | Pepper Pike Orange | Pepper Pike Orange | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 30–21 | Canal Fulton Northwest | Canal Fulton Northwest | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–16 | 35–27 | Minerva | Minerva | 1.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–20 | 21–10 | Jefferson Area | Lakeview | 12.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–24 | 37–21 | Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS) | Glenville | 17.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–25 | 26–21 | Hawken | Gilmour Academy | 12.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–20 | 0–49 | Field | Poland Seminary | 50.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–23 | 10–27 | Fairless | Claymont | 19.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–21 | 17–20 | Ashtabula Edgewood | Conneaut | 7.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 21–52 | East Liverpool | Salem | 33.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–25 | 14–20 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 1.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–19 | 35–21 | Beaver | Beaver | 9.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–48 | Reading | Reading | 47.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–20 | 14–12 | Cincinnati Northwest | Cincinnati Northwest | 1.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–19 | 14–56 | New Richmond | Indian Hill | 44.7 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
