Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Montpelier vs. Edgerton
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 33–14
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 17.7
Sep 4, 2026
Hicksville vs. Edon
- Projected
- 14–28
- Final
- 6–50
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 30.0
Sep 4, 2026
Delta vs. Gibsonburg
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 50–6
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 43.1
Sep 4, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. Independence
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 7–24
- Projected winner
- Independence
- Margin error
- 12.7
Sep 4, 2026
Columbus Grove vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Columbus Grove
- Margin error
- 5.4
Sep 4, 2026
Colonel Crawford vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 22–38
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 14.2
Sep 4, 2026
Carey vs. Lucas
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Lucas
- Margin error
- 38.9
Sep 4, 2026
Archbold vs. Tinora
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 21.0
Sep 4, 2026
Tuscarawas Valley vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- East Knox
- Margin error
- 32.7
Sep 4, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 27–28
- Projected winner
- St. Thomas Aquinas
- Margin error
- 3.7
Sep 4, 2026
Rittman vs. South Central
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 49–13
- Projected winner
- Rittman
- Margin error
- 28.2
Sep 4, 2026
Newton Falls vs. Mathews
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 29.9
Sep 4, 2026
Mogadore vs. Dalton
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 30–21
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 8.4
Sep 4, 2026
LaBrae vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 24.9
Sep 4, 2026
Hillsdale vs. Loudonville
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 55–6
- Projected winner
- Loudonville
- Margin error
- 51.9
Sep 4, 2026
East Palestine vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 43–26
- Projected winner
- Malvern
- Margin error
- 20.2
Sep 4, 2026
East Canton vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 23–14
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 14.1
Sep 4, 2026
Columbiana vs. BC Western Reserve
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 38–37
- Projected winner
- BC Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 2.0
Sep 4, 2026
Brookfield vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 6–7
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 4, 2026
Black River vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 12–42
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 20.8
Sep 4, 2026
West Liberty-Salem vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 31–0
- Projected winner
- Cedarville
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 4, 2026
Versailles vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–34
- Projected winner
- St. Henry
- Margin error
- 9.9
Sep 4, 2026
Meadowdale vs. Purcell Marian
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 6–18
- Projected winner
- Purcell Marian
- Margin error
- 5.1
Sep 4, 2026
Mariemont vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 14–27
- Projected winner
- Mariemont
- Margin error
- 16.0
Sep 4, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Fairbanks
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 30–20
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 2.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 33–14 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 14–28 | 6–50 | Edon | Edon | 30.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–22 | 50–6 | Delta | Delta | 43.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–21 | 7–24 | Independence | Independence | 12.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 21–14 | Columbus Grove | Columbus Grove | 5.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–23 | 22–38 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 14.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–23 | 40–7 | Lucas | Carey | 38.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–16 | 38–7 | Archbold | Archbold | 21.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–33 | East Knox | East Knox | 32.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–19 | 27–28 | St. Thomas Aquinas | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | 3.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–19 | 49–13 | Rittman | Rittman | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–18 | 7–28 | Newton Falls | Mathews | 29.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–19 | 30–21 | Mogadore | Mogadore | 8.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–25 | 0–28 | McDonald | McDonald | 24.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–25 | 55–6 | Loudonville | Hillsdale | 51.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–20 | 43–26 | Malvern | East Palestine | 20.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–25 | 23–14 | Lowellville | East Canton | 14.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–22 | 38–37 | BC Western Reserve | Columbiana | 2.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 6–7 | Toronto | Toronto | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–27 | 12–42 | Smithville | Smithville | 20.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–22 | 31–0 | Cedarville | West Liberty-Salem | 34.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–34 | St. Henry | St. Henry | 9.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–24 | 6–18 | Purcell Marian | Purcell Marian | 5.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–21 | 14–27 | Mariemont | Williamsburg | 16.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 28–15 | 30–20 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 2.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
