Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Steubenville vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 21–16
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 4.5
Sep 11, 2026
Ravenna vs. Akron Springfield
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Ravenna
- Margin error
- 25.6
Sep 11, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. Ashland
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 35–10
- Projected winner
- Ashland
- Margin error
- 36.1
Sep 11, 2026
Marlington vs. Minerva
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 27–13
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 15.9
Sep 11, 2026
Hubbard vs. Niles McKinley
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 51–20
- Projected winner
- Hubbard
- Margin error
- 25.5
Sep 11, 2026
Howland vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 33.1
Sep 11, 2026
Geneva vs. Ashtabula Edgewood
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 10–13
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula Edgewood
- Margin error
- 0.0
Sep 11, 2026
Youngstown vs. Ursuline
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 9–25
- Projected winner
- Ursuline
- Margin error
- 13.5
Sep 11, 2026
Dover vs. Lexington
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 43–7
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 11, 2026
Coventry vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 0–46
- Projected winner
- Akron East
- Margin error
- 43.7
Sep 11, 2026
Canfield vs. Poland Seminary
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- Poland Seminary
- Margin error
- 3.4
Sep 11, 2026
Alliance vs. Salem
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 25–49
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 15.6
Sep 11, 2026
West Carrollton vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 8–33
- Projected winner
- West Carrollton
- Margin error
- 30.1
Sep 11, 2026
Columbus West vs. Eastmoor Academy
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 40.2
Sep 11, 2026
Turpin vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Winton Woods
- Margin error
- 35.4
Sep 11, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Springfield Northwestern
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 41–13
- Projected winner
- Tecumseh
- Margin error
- 23.3
Sep 11, 2026
Stebbins vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 0–63
- Projected winner
- Tie
- Margin error
- 63.0
Sep 11, 2026
Talawanda vs. Franklin
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Talawanda
- Margin error
- 23.1
Sep 11, 2026
Sidney vs. Butler
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 13–45
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 25.1
Sep 11, 2026
Piqua vs. Troy
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 13.7
Sep 11, 2026
Lima Senior vs. Tiffin Columbian
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 42–33
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 12.4
Sep 11, 2026
Harrison vs. Withrow
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 22–13
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 7.7
Sep 11, 2026
Franklin Heights vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- KIPP Columbus
- Margin error
- 10.6
Sep 11, 2026
Fairborn vs. Greenville
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 11, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Bishop Fenwick
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 5.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–23 | 21–16 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–13 | 40–0 | Ravenna | Ravenna | 25.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–26 | 35–10 | Ashland | New Philadelphia | 36.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–22 | 27–13 | Minerva | Marlington | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 51–20 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 25.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–34 | West Branch | West Branch | 33.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–25 | 10–13 | Ashtabula Edgewood | Ashtabula Edgewood | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–23 | 9–25 | Ursuline | Ursuline | 13.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–17 | 43–7 | Dover | Dover | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–21 | 0–46 | Akron East | Akron East | 43.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–25 | 21–24 | Poland Seminary | Poland Seminary | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–25 | 25–49 | Salem | Salem | 15.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–16 | 8–33 | West Carrollton | Xenia | 30.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–18 | 44–0 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 40.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–45 | Winton Woods | Winton Woods | 35.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–16 | 41–13 | Tecumseh | Tecumseh | 23.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 0–63 | Tie | Tippecanoe | 63.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–15 | 35–0 | Talawanda | Talawanda | 23.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–24 | 13–45 | Butler | Butler | 25.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 14–28 | Troy | Troy | 13.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–23 | 42–33 | Tiffin Columbian | Lima Senior | 12.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–23 | 22–13 | Harrison | Harrison | 7.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–21 | 6–20 | KIPP Columbus | KIPP Columbus | 10.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–19 | 42–0 | Fairborn | Fairborn | 36.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–23 | 28–27 | Bishop Fenwick | Trenton Edgewood | 5.1 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
