Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Reynoldsburg vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 34–28
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 1.0
Sep 18, 2026
Pickerington Central vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Canal Winchester
- Margin error
- 6.8
Sep 18, 2026
Olentangy Orange vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 7–51
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 43.6
Sep 18, 2026
Newark vs. Logan
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 59–33
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 23.2
Sep 18, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Thomas Worthington
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Bradley
- Margin error
- 31.3
Sep 18, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Lancaster
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 27–14
- Projected winner
- Groveport-Madison
- Margin error
- 5.0
Sep 18, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Hilliard Davidson
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 10–33
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Davidson
- Margin error
- 21.0
Sep 18, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. Hilliard Darby
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 10–7
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 4.7
Sep 18, 2026
Whitmer vs. Holland Springfield
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 57–14
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 39.0
Sep 18, 2026
Start vs. Waite
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 6–12
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 1.7
Sep 18, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Southview
- Projected
- 29–17
- Final
- 55–7
- Projected winner
- Perrysburg
- Margin error
- 35.6
Sep 18, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 17–14
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Liberty
- Margin error
- 2.0
Sep 18, 2026
Northmont vs. Springboro
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 14–38
- Projected winner
- Springboro
- Margin error
- 21.1
Sep 18, 2026
Middletown vs. Colerain
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Colerain
- Margin error
- 28.0
Sep 18, 2026
Marysville vs. Upper Arlington
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 25.4
Sep 18, 2026
Fairmont vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 35–41
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 2.7
Sep 18, 2026
Findlay vs. Fremont Ross
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 28–37
- Projected winner
- Findlay
- Margin error
- 16.9
Sep 18, 2026
Dublin Jerome vs. New Albany
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 29–42
- Projected winner
- New Albany
- Margin error
- 8.9
Sep 18, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Grove City
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 35–42
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 2.2
Sep 18, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Westerville North
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 7–15
- Projected winner
- Delaware Hayes
- Margin error
- 10.9
Sep 18, 2026
Centerville vs. Springfield
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 12–29
- Projected winner
- Centerville
- Margin error
- 17.4
Sep 18, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Miamisburg
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 20–35
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 15.4
Sep 18, 2026
St. Ignatius vs. John Marshall
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 60–0
- Projected winner
- St. Ignatius
- Margin error
- 50.8
Sep 18, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Massillon Washington
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 21–23
- Projected winner
- Massillon Washington
- Margin error
- 0.4
Sep 18, 2026
Solon vs. Stow-Munroe Falls
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- Stow-Munroe Falls
- Margin error
- 14.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–19 | 34–28 | Reynoldsburg | Reynoldsburg | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–23 | 24–21 | Canal Winchester | Pickerington Central | 6.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 7–51 | Pickerington North | Pickerington North | 43.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–17 | 59–33 | Newark | Newark | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–19 | 49–14 | Hilliard Bradley | Hilliard Bradley | 31.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–17 | 27–14 | Groveport-Madison | Groveport-Madison | 5.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–19 | 10–33 | Hilliard Davidson | Hilliard Davidson | 21.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 10–7 | Hilliard Darby | Gahanna Lincoln | 4.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–21 | 57–14 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 39.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–21 | 6–12 | Waite | Waite | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–17 | 55–7 | Perrysburg | Perrysburg | 35.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 17–14 | Olentangy Liberty | Olentangy Liberty | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–22 | 14–38 | Springboro | Springboro | 21.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–24 | 28–7 | Colerain | Middletown | 28.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–23 | 0–28 | Upper Arlington | Upper Arlington | 25.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–24 | 35–41 | Wayne | Wayne | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–18 | 28–37 | Findlay | Fremont Ross | 16.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 29–42 | New Albany | New Albany | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–23 | 35–42 | Grove City | Grove City | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–19 | 7–15 | Delaware Hayes | Westerville North | 10.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 12–29 | Centerville | Springfield | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 20–35 | Beavercreek | Miamisburg | 15.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–15 | 60–0 | St. Ignatius | St. Ignatius | 50.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 21–23 | Massillon Washington | Massillon Washington | 0.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–27 | 24–21 | Stow-Munroe Falls | Solon | 14.7 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.