Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 26–21
- Projected winner
- Johnstown Northridge
- Margin error
- 11.3
Sep 18, 2026
North Canton Hoover vs. Louisville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 27–18
- Projected winner
- Louisville
- Margin error
- 9.1
Sep 18, 2026
Dublin Scioto vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 20–49
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 17.6
Sep 18, 2026
Big Walnut vs. Westerville South
- Projected
- 29–18
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Big Walnut
- Margin error
- 19.5
Sep 18, 2026
Valley Forge vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 27.9
Sep 18, 2026
Northview vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 16–19
- Final
- 17–25
- Projected winner
- Napoleon
- Margin error
- 5.0
Sep 18, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Orchard Lake St. Mary
- Margin error
- 22.9
Sep 18, 2026
North Royalton vs. Wadsworth
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Wadsworth
- Margin error
- 37.1
Sep 18, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Westlake
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 35–25
- Projected winner
- Westlake
- Margin error
- 13.5
Sep 18, 2026
Normandy vs. Bay
- Projected
- 18–16
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Normandy
- Margin error
- 51.0
Sep 18, 2026
Lakewood vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 18, 2026
Rhodes vs. Glenville
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 6–50
- Projected winner
- Glenville
- Margin error
- 40.1
Sep 18, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Toledo St. John's
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 18, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Liberty-Benton
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- Oregon Clay
- Margin error
- 35.2
Sep 18, 2026
Brecksville vs. Kenston
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 20–0
- Projected winner
- Kenston
- Margin error
- 25.8
Sep 18, 2026
Bowsher vs. Northwood
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 13–35
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 14.9
Sep 18, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 31–7
- Projected winner
- Amherst Steele
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 18, 2026
Avon vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 58–33
- Projected winner
- Olmsted Falls
- Margin error
- 25.9
Sep 18, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Bowling Green
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Bowling Green
- Margin error
- 39.2
Sep 18, 2026
Warren G. Harding vs. Ursuline
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Warren G. Harding
- Margin error
- 33.8
Sep 18, 2026
Twinsburg vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 19.4
Sep 18, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Streetsboro
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 24–41
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 13.0
Sep 18, 2026
Eastlake North vs. Chardon
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 22–21
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 2.4
Sep 18, 2026
Akron North vs. Mogadore
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Mogadore
- Margin error
- 42.2
Sep 18, 2026
Mayfield vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 28–17
- Final
- 35–3
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 21.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–24 | 26–21 | Johnstown Northridge | Licking Heights | 11.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 27–18 | Louisville | North Canton Hoover | 9.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–27 | 20–49 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 17.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–18 | 45–14 | Big Walnut | Big Walnut | 19.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–28 | 7–48 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–19 | 17–25 | Napoleon | Napoleon | 5.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–29 | 7–42 | Orchard Lake St. Mary | Orchard Lake St. Mary | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–38 | Wadsworth | Wadsworth | 37.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–21 | 35–25 | Westlake | North Olmsted | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–16 | 0–49 | Normandy | Bay | 51.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–18 | 28–21 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 6–50 | Glenville | Glenville | 40.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–20 | 45–14 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–18 | 56–14 | Oregon Clay | Oregon Clay | 35.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–25 | 20–0 | Kenston | Brecksville | 25.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–24 | 13–35 | Northwood | Northwood | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–25 | 31–7 | Amherst Steele | Avon Lake | 30.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 58–33 | Olmsted Falls | Avon | 25.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–22 | 35–0 | Bowling Green | Anthony Wayne | 39.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 7–40 | Warren G. Harding | Ursuline | 33.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–21 | 7–28 | Aurora | Aurora | 19.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 24–41 | Streetsboro | Streetsboro | 13.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–21 | 22–21 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 2.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–23 | 0–49 | Mogadore | Mogadore | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–17 | 35–3 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 21.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.