Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 50–6
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 35.0
Oct 9, 2026
East Clinton vs. Fayetteville-Perry
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 20–30
- Projected winner
- Fayetteville-Perry
- Margin error
- 0.9
Oct 9, 2026
Clark Montessori vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 15–30
- Final
- 0–62
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 47.3
Oct 9, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Purcell Marian
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 37–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 27.6
Oct 9, 2026
Blanchester vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 18–69
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 54.3
Oct 9, 2026
Westfall vs. Zane Trace
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 0–48
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 41.5
Oct 9, 2026
South Point vs. Coal Grove
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 48–36
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 1.0
Oct 9, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 43–35
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth
- Margin error
- 5.8
Oct 9, 2026
Piketon vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 41–13
- Projected winner
- Piketon
- Margin error
- 18.3
Oct 9, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 8–58
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 42.2
Oct 9, 2026
McDermott Northwest vs. Portsmouth West
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 19.4
Oct 9, 2026
New Lexington vs. West Muskingum
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 47–28
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 18.9
Oct 9, 2026
Meigs vs. Minford
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 27–21
- Projected winner
- Meigs
- Margin error
- 1.3
Oct 9, 2026
Harvest Prep vs. Ironton
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Ironton
- Margin error
- 33.8
Oct 9, 2026
Coshocton vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 37–45
- Projected winner
- Crooksville
- Margin error
- 2.2
Oct 9, 2026
Alexander vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–49
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 34.8
Oct 9, 2026
Wynford vs. Bucyrus
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 7–8
- Projected winner
- Bucyrus
- Margin error
- 0.3
Oct 9, 2026
Swanton vs. Evergreen
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 7–36
- Projected winner
- Swanton
- Margin error
- 29.5
Oct 9, 2026
Orrville vs. Worthington Christian
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 10–9
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 0.0
Oct 9, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Waynedale
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Waynedale
- Margin error
- 15.8
Oct 9, 2026
Millbury Lake vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 12–44
- Projected winner
- Millbury Lake
- Margin error
- 39.8
Oct 9, 2026
Lakota vs. Ottawa Hills
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 34–15
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 20.5
Oct 9, 2026
Eastwood vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 9.2
Oct 9, 2026
Elmwood vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 46.1
Oct 9, 2026
Chippewa vs. Dalton
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 13–12
- Projected winner
- Chippewa
- Margin error
- 1.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–17 | 50–6 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 35.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 14–23 | 20–30 | Fayetteville-Perry | Fayetteville-Perry | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–30 | 0–62 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 47.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–17 | 37–0 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Cincinnati Hills CA | 27.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–20 | 18–69 | Blanchester | Williamsburg | 54.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–25 | 0–48 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 41.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–15 | 48–36 | South Point | South Point | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–18 | 43–35 | Portsmouth | Portsmouth | 5.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–14 | 41–13 | Piketon | Piketon | 18.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 15–22 | 8–58 | Lucasville Valley | Lucasville Valley | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–28 | 0–35 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 19.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 47–28 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–18 | 27–21 | Meigs | Meigs | 1.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–26 | 0–38 | Ironton | Ironton | 33.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–22 | 37–45 | Crooksville | Crooksville | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–49 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 34.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–19 | 7–8 | Bucyrus | Bucyrus | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–16 | 7–36 | Swanton | Evergreen | 29.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–23 | 10–9 | Orrville | Orrville | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–19 | 14–31 | Waynedale | Waynedale | 15.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–16 | 12–44 | Millbury Lake | Oak Harbor | 39.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 34–15 | Ottawa Hills | Lakota | 20.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–25 | 28–21 | Genoa | Eastwood | 9.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–25 | 0–49 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 46.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–21 | 13–12 | Chippewa | Chippewa | 1.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.