Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. Shaw
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Niles McKinley
- Margin error
- 34.5
Sep 25, 2026
Hubbard vs. Struthers
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Hubbard
- Margin error
- 29.6
Sep 25, 2026
Howland vs. Marlington
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 27.9
Sep 25, 2026
Geneva vs. Perry
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 35.3
Sep 25, 2026
Dover vs. West Holmes
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 56–35
- Projected winner
- West Holmes
- Margin error
- 26.2
Sep 25, 2026
Coventry vs. Canal Fulton Northwest
- Projected
- 14–25
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Canal Fulton Northwest
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 25, 2026
Canfield vs. West Branch
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 24–14
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 22.1
Sep 25, 2026
Aurora vs. Revere
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 14–24
- Projected winner
- Revere
- Margin error
- 6.3
Sep 25, 2026
Alliance vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 22–15
- Projected winner
- Alliance
- Margin error
- 1.2
Sep 25, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Jonathan Alder
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 8–38
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 19.9
Sep 25, 2026
Talawanda vs. Ross
- Projected
- 29–18
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Talawanda
- Margin error
- 17.7
Sep 25, 2026
Stebbins vs. Troy
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 36.8
Sep 25, 2026
Sidney vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Tippecanoe
- Margin error
- 36.6
Sep 25, 2026
Piqua vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 14–16
- Projected winner
- Xenia
- Margin error
- 0.6
Sep 25, 2026
Little Miami vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Winton Woods
- Margin error
- 4.1
Sep 25, 2026
Lima Senior vs. Toledo Woodward
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 47–6
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 25, 2026
Harrison vs. East Central
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- East Central
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 25, 2026
Franklin Heights vs. Buckeye Valley
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 6–10
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Valley
- Margin error
- 6.0
Sep 25, 2026
Fairborn vs. West Carrollton
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 39–12
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 17.1
Sep 25, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Bellbrook
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 6–27
- Projected winner
- Trenton Edgewood
- Margin error
- 21.6
Sep 25, 2026
Wooster vs. New Philadelphia
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 17–10
- Projected winner
- Wooster
- Margin error
- 6.2
Sep 25, 2026
Whitehall-Yearling vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 28–3
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 28.2
Sep 25, 2026
Whetstone vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 12–28
- Final
- 0–64
- Projected winner
- Columbus East
- Margin error
- 48.4
Sep 25, 2026
Watkins Memorial vs. Licking Valley
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Licking Valley
- Margin error
- 30.5
Sep 25, 2026
Massillon Washington vs. Football North Inc. (via Clarkson SS)
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 31–8
- Projected winner
- Massillon Washington
- Margin error
- 20.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–20 | 41–6 | Niles McKinley | Niles McKinley | 34.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–15 | 42–0 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–19 | 40–7 | Howland | Howland | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–27 | 0–42 | Perry | Perry | 35.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–26 | 56–35 | West Holmes | Dover | 26.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–25 | 6–34 | Canal Fulton Northwest | Canal Fulton Northwest | 17.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–29 | 24–14 | West Branch | Canfield | 22.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 14–24 | Revere | Revere | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–17 | 22–15 | Alliance | Alliance | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 8–38 | Jonathan Alder | Jonathan Alder | 19.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–18 | 7–14 | Talawanda | Ross | 17.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–21 | 7–42 | Stebbins | Troy | 36.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–25 | 6–49 | Tippecanoe | Tippecanoe | 36.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 14–16 | Xenia | Xenia | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–25 | 7–14 | Winton Woods | Winton Woods | 4.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–16 | 47–6 | Lima Senior | Lima Senior | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–26 | 21–24 | East Central | East Central | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–25 | 6–10 | Buckeye Valley | Buckeye Valley | 6.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–15 | 39–12 | Fairborn | Fairborn | 17.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–22 | 6–27 | Trenton Edgewood | Bellbrook | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–20 | 17–10 | Wooster | Wooster | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–23 | 28–3 | Bishop Ready | Whitehall-Yearling | 28.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 12–28 | 0–64 | Columbus East | Columbus East | 48.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–28 | 0–40 | Licking Valley | Licking Valley | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–23 | 31–8 | Massillon Washington | Massillon Washington | 20.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
