Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Dublin Scioto vs. St. Charles
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 12–14
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 6.6
Oct 2, 2026
Canal Winchester vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 19–7
- Projected winner
- Canal Winchester
- Margin error
- 6.5
Oct 2, 2026
Big Walnut vs. Worthington Kilbourne
- Projected
- 25–26
- Final
- 35–28
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 7.5
Oct 2, 2026
Valley Forge vs. Westlake
- Projected
- 12–25
- Final
- 21–20
- Projected winner
- Westlake
- Margin error
- 13.9
Oct 2, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Birmingham Brother Rice
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 19–46
- Projected winner
- Birmingham Brother Rice
- Margin error
- 17.7
Oct 2, 2026
Toledo St. John's vs. Dearborn Divine Child
- Projected
- 18–29
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Dearborn Divine Child
- Margin error
- 2.8
Oct 2, 2026
Holland Springfield vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 35–28
- Projected winner
- Holland Springfield
- Margin error
- 1.5
Oct 2, 2026
North Olmsted vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 35.6
Oct 2, 2026
Normandy vs. Medina Buckeye
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 6–56
- Projected winner
- Medina Buckeye
- Margin error
- 45.8
Oct 2, 2026
Lakewood vs. Bay
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 36–35
- Projected winner
- Lakewood
- Margin error
- 9.5
Oct 2, 2026
Medina Highland vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 52–14
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 34.0
Oct 2, 2026
Rhodes vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Rhodes
- Margin error
- 38.3
Oct 2, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Southview
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 16–13
- Projected winner
- Fremont Ross
- Margin error
- 4.5
Oct 2, 2026
Brecksville vs. Copley
- Projected
- 16–30
- Final
- 26–21
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 19.0
Oct 2, 2026
Bowsher vs. Scott
- Projected
- 19–16
- Final
- 29–14
- Projected winner
- Bowsher
- Margin error
- 11.6
Oct 2, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 10–28
- Projected winner
- Olmsted Falls
- Margin error
- 16.2
Oct 2, 2026
Avon vs. Midview
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 56–12
- Projected winner
- Avon
- Margin error
- 36.8
Oct 2, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Oregon Clay
- Projected
- 15–31
- Final
- 0–23
- Projected winner
- Oregon Clay
- Margin error
- 7.9
Oct 2, 2026
Walsh Jesuit vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Walsh Jesuit
- Margin error
- 43.4
Oct 2, 2026
Twinsburg vs. Barberton
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 26–6
- Projected winner
- Barberton
- Margin error
- 22.0
Oct 2, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Akron Springfield
- Projected
- 23–14
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 37.3
Oct 2, 2026
Willoughby South vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 28.1
Oct 2, 2026
Mayfield vs. Revere
- Projected
- 28–18
- Final
- 33–10
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 13.7
Oct 2, 2026
Maple Heights vs. Youngstown
- Projected
- 28–16
- Final
- 6–28
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 33.9
Oct 2, 2026
Madison vs. hARVEY
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 10.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–25 | 12–14 | St. Charles | St. Charles | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–19 | 19–7 | Canal Winchester | Canal Winchester | 6.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–26 | 35–28 | Worthington Kilbourne | Big Walnut | 7.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 12–25 | 21–20 | Westlake | Valley Forge | 13.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–25 | 19–46 | Birmingham Brother Rice | Birmingham Brother Rice | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–29 | 6–20 | Dearborn Divine Child | Dearborn Divine Child | 2.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–15 | 35–28 | Holland Springfield | Holland Springfield | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–26 | 0–42 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 35.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–20 | 6–56 | Medina Buckeye | Medina Buckeye | 45.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–15 | 36–35 | Lakewood | Lakewood | 9.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–20 | 52–14 | Medina Highland | Medina Highland | 34.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–15 | 46–0 | Rhodes | Rhodes | 38.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–17 | 16–13 | Fremont Ross | Fremont Ross | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–30 | 26–21 | Copley | Brecksville | 19.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–16 | 29–14 | Bowsher | Bowsher | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–23 | 10–28 | Olmsted Falls | Olmsted Falls | 16.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–19 | 56–12 | Avon | Avon | 36.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–31 | 0–23 | Oregon Clay | Oregon Clay | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–17 | 56–7 | Walsh Jesuit | Walsh Jesuit | 43.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–21 | 26–6 | Barberton | Twinsburg | 22.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–14 | 46–0 | Kent Roosevelt | Kent Roosevelt | 37.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–18 | 45–7 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 28.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–18 | 33–10 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 13.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–16 | 6–28 | Maple Heights | Youngstown | 33.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–22 | 7–20 | hARVEY | hARVEY | 10.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.