Games evaluated
707
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:59 AM EDT
Performance summary
707 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
59.7%
422 correct
Average margin error
22.6
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.236
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
12.4%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 707
- Winner accuracy
- 59.7%
- Margin error
- 22.6
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 1 | 8.5% | 0.0% | -8.5 | 0.007 |
| 10–19% | 32 | 16.7% | 18.8% | +2.0 | 0.160 |
| 20–29% | 81 | 25.9% | 34.6% | +8.6 | 0.234 |
| 30–39% | 117 | 35.2% | 40.2% | +5.0 | 0.237 |
| 40–49% | 167 | 45.5% | 48.5% | +3.0 | 0.250 |
| 50–59% | 128 | 54.6% | 50.8% | -3.8 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 96 | 65.2% | 67.7% | +2.6 | 0.217 |
| 70–79% | 73 | 74.6% | 68.5% | -6.1 | 0.218 |
| 80–89% | 12 | 83.1% | 58.3% | -24.7 | 0.301 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 434 | 61.3% | 22.5 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 706 | 59.6% | 22.6 points |
| Close Game | 535 | 56.8% | 22.8 points |
| Upset Possible | 505 | 56.0% | 22.4 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Anna vs. Spencerville | 19–22 | 60–0 | 63.2 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Bowsher vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 7–56
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 48.4
Aug 28, 2026
Avon Lake vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 13–14
- Projected winner
- Avon Lake
- Margin error
- 4.8
Aug 28, 2026
Avon vs. Pine-Richland
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 18–48
- Projected winner
- Pine-Richland
- Margin error
- 26.7
Aug 28, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Toledo St. John's
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 0–25
- Projected winner
- Toledo St. John's
- Margin error
- 14.1
Aug 28, 2026
Warren G. Harding vs. Youngstown East
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 20–12
- Projected winner
- Youngstown East
- Margin error
- 8.1
Aug 28, 2026
University School vs. Bay
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 7.1
Aug 28, 2026
Painesville Riverside vs. Aurora
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 40–13
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 28, 2026
Willoughby South vs. Kent Roosevelt
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 34–13
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 21.1
Aug 28, 2026
Eastlake North vs. Valley Forge
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 32.9
Aug 28, 2026
Nordonia vs. Akron East
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 46–12
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 26.6
Aug 28, 2026
Mayfield vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 31–13
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 18.2
Aug 28, 2026
Madison vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 36–24
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 24.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lakeside vs. Geneva
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Lakeside
- Margin error
- 38.7
Aug 28, 2026
Firestone vs. Copley
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 6–56
- Projected winner
- Copley
- Margin error
- 42.2
Aug 28, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 39–37
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 2.5
Aug 28, 2026
Ellet vs. Field
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 20–30
- Projected winner
- Field
- Margin error
- 9.9
Aug 28, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Akron North
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 50–0
- Projected winner
- Akron North
- Margin error
- 50.5
Aug 28, 2026
John Hay vs. Cleveland Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 18–49
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 28, 2026
Brush vs. North Ridgeville
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- North Ridgeville
- Margin error
- 7.7
Aug 28, 2026
Boardman vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Lake
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 28, 2026
Benedictine vs. Padua Franciscan
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 7–3
- Projected winner
- Benedictine
- Margin error
- 3.9
Aug 28, 2026
Bedford vs. Twinsburg
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 23–20
- Projected winner
- Twinsburg
- Margin error
- 4.4
Aug 28, 2026
Western Hills vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 28–41
- Projected winner
- Western Hills
- Margin error
- 15.0
Aug 28, 2026
West Clermont vs. Anderson
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 19–70
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 58.8
Aug 28, 2026
Mason vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 43–24
- Projected winner
- Sycamore
- Margin error
- 20.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 7–56 | Genoa | Genoa | 48.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–18 | 13–14 | Avon Lake | Mentor Lake Catholic | 4.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–25 | 18–48 | Pine-Richland | Pine-Richland | 26.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–26 | 0–25 | Toledo St. John's | Toledo St. John's | 14.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–22 | 20–12 | Youngstown East | Warren G. Harding | 8.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 28–14 | 35–14 | University School | University School | 7.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 40–13 | Aurora | Painesville Riverside | 33.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 34–13 | Kent Roosevelt | Willoughby South | 21.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–17 | 42–0 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 32.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–19 | 46–12 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 31–13 | Elyria Catholic | Mayfield | 18.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 14–27 | 36–24 | Maple Heights | Madison | 24.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 6–41 | Lakeside | Geneva | 38.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–24 | 6–56 | Copley | Copley | 42.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 39–37 | Cardinal Mooney | Garfield Heights | 2.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 20–30 | Field | Field | 9.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 50–0 | Akron North | Cuyahoga Falls | 50.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 18–49 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 28.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 21–14 | North Ridgeville | Brush | 7.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–27 | Uniontown Lake | Uniontown Lake | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 7–3 | Benedictine | Benedictine | 3.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 23–20 | Twinsburg | Bedford | 4.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 28–41 | Western Hills | Roger Bacon | 15.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 19–70 | West Clermont | Anderson | 58.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–21 | 43–24 | Sycamore | Mason | 20.6 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.