Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Northland vs. Columbus Academy
- Projected
- 19–27
- Final
- 6–36
- Projected winner
- Columbus Academy
- Margin error
- 21.6
Aug 21, 2026
Mifflin vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 14–20
- Final
- 6–39
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 21, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Mount Vernon
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 21–17
- Projected winner
- Marion Harding
- Margin error
- 0.1
Aug 21, 2026
Logan vs. Athens
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 21–49
- Projected winner
- Athens
- Margin error
- 20.5
Aug 21, 2026
North Canton Hoover vs. Buchtel
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 35–8
- Projected winner
- North Canton Hoover
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 21, 2026
Uniontown Green vs. Indian Valley
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 13–42
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 23.0
Aug 21, 2026
Northview vs. Southview
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 13–35
- Projected winner
- Northview
- Margin error
- 22.5
Aug 21, 2026
Amherst Steele vs. Sandusky
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 42–16
- Projected winner
- Sandusky
- Margin error
- 26.1
Aug 21, 2026
Toledo St. Francis vs. Waite
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 46–21
- Projected winner
- Toledo St. Francis
- Margin error
- 19.9
Aug 21, 2026
Holland Springfield vs. Maumee
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Maumee
- Margin error
- 10.4
Aug 21, 2026
North Royalton vs. Valley Forge
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- North Royalton
- Margin error
- 32.3
Aug 21, 2026
North Ridgeville vs. Uniontown Lake
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Uniontown Lake
- Margin error
- 5.9
Aug 21, 2026
Midview vs. Westlake
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 34–14
- Projected winner
- Midview
- Margin error
- 15.8
Aug 21, 2026
Normandy vs. Holy Name
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 6–52
- Projected winner
- Normandy
- Margin error
- 46.9
Aug 21, 2026
Rhodes vs. Firelands
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Fremont Ross vs. Tiffin Columbian
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 22–21
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 1.7
Aug 21, 2026
Toledo Central Catholic vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 27–23
- Final
- 27–9
- Projected winner
- Toledo Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 14.3
Aug 21, 2026
Oregon Clay vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 27–21
- Projected winner
- Wapakoneta
- Margin error
- 6.3
Aug 21, 2026
Brecksville vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 16–7
- Projected winner
- Brecksville
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 21, 2026
Bowsher vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 13–47
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 33.6
Aug 21, 2026
Anthony Wayne vs. Bishop Watterson
- Projected
- 22–28
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 29.4
Aug 21, 2026
Walsh Jesuit vs. Medina Highland
- Projected
- 23–29
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Medina Highland
- Margin error
- 39.6
Aug 21, 2026
University School vs. Brookside
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 64–42
- Projected winner
- University School
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 21, 2026
Kent Roosevelt vs. Twinsburg
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 22–19
- Projected winner
- Kent Roosevelt
- Margin error
- 3.1
Aug 21, 2026
Painesville Riverside vs. Steubenville
- Projected
- 19–28
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 11.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–27 | 6–36 | Columbus Academy | Columbus Academy | 21.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–20 | 6–39 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–18 | 21–17 | Marion Harding | Marion Harding | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–25 | 21–49 | Athens | Athens | 20.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–18 | 35–8 | North Canton Hoover | North Canton Hoover | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–27 | 13–42 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 23.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–17 | 13–35 | Northview | Southview | 22.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–21 | 42–16 | Sandusky | Amherst Steele | 26.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–18 | 46–21 | Toledo St. Francis | Toledo St. Francis | 19.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–23 | 20–14 | Maumee | Holland Springfield | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–20 | 33–0 | North Royalton | North Royalton | 32.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–24 | 14–20 | Uniontown Lake | Uniontown Lake | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–17 | 34–14 | Midview | Midview | 15.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 6–52 | Normandy | Holy Name | 46.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 7–21 | Firelands | Firelands | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 22–21 | Tiffin Columbian | Fremont Ross | 1.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–23 | 27–9 | Toledo Central Catholic | Toledo Central Catholic | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–25 | 27–21 | Wapakoneta | Oregon Clay | 6.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 16–7 | Brecksville | Brecksville | 8.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–20 | 13–47 | Otsego | Otsego | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–28 | 0–35 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 29.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–29 | 34–0 | Medina Highland | Walsh Jesuit | 39.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–18 | 64–42 | University School | University School | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–17 | 22–19 | Kent Roosevelt | Kent Roosevelt | 3.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–28 | 14–35 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 11.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
