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Ohio Sports Rankings

Mt. Zion Prep Warriors ( 1-7 )
Lanham, MD

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2026 Team Snapshot

No current simulation snapshot

Season Profile

Record
1-7
Coach
Not available
Football leagues
Independent / not assigned
Division
Not available
Region
Not available

OSPR Standing

36.0

Through Week 11

Statewide
—
Division
—
Region
—

Previous: After Week 10

OSPR 36.0 · Statewide — · Division — · Region —

Season Outlook

Current Harbin points
0.81
Projected regional seed
—
Most likely record
—
Expected wins
—
Playoff qualification
—

Next Opponent

Rabun Gap - Nacoochee

Friday, Oct 30, 2026

Projected score: 9–34 (3.6% win estimate)

Medium calibration Blowout Range

Version 2026.3 Live projection Nov 4, 2026 12:44 PM

Team resources: Explore playoff paths View on Joe Eitel
More OSPR details Rating components, playoff chances, and next-game scenarios

Detailed OSPR rating

Team Rating

What is OSPR?
OSPR
36.0
Harbin 0.81
Show Legacy Ratings
ELO
1318
CalPreps
-2.68
FPI
-45.49

2026 Schedule

OSPR percentages show Mt. Zion Prep's chance to win.

Projected record: 1–8 (1.0 expected wins)

* Does not count in OHSAA rankings
Schedule predictions use the current OSPR ratings for this season.
Historical backtest evidence · 2000–2025 Separate from live validation
Forfeits excluded

98,855 games replayed week by week using only earlier games for ratings. These are retrospective tests of base OSPR 2026.1, not forecasts published at the time or live validation of OSPR 2026.3. They do not add to a prediction's live comparable count.

Calibration by season stage

Main comparison: 85,030 Ohio-versus-Ohio games, 2002–2025, excluding 2020. The first two years are warmup seasons; the unusual 2020 season is reported outside this comparison.

Season stage Favorite picks Forecast win rate Actual win rate Brier score
Early · Weeks 1–3 23,442 62.1% 61.5% 0.2282
Middle · Weeks 4–6 23,747 66.2% 69.3% 0.1991
Late · Weeks 7–10 31,973 68.7% 75.4% 0.1715
Playoffs 5,643 65.0% 67.2% 0.2112

Scroll the table to compare win rates. Win rates exclude exact 50/50 picks. Brier scores use all games in each stage; lower is better.

Middle and late season adjustment: forward checks

Brier score 0.1972 → 0.1949 across 74,103 games (2005–2025, excluding 2020). Each test season used an adjustment fitted on the previous five calendar years. Early season and playoff probabilities retained the base curve.

This tests the adjustment method. The fixed OSPR 2026.2 profile was fitted on 2021–2025; its live validation is tracked separately.

OSPR 2026.3 scoring model: chronological checks

Average error per team: 12.94 → 10.69 points. Brier score: 0.1949 → 0.1644. Paired comparison across 48,385 games, 2012–2025, excluding 2020.

Each season's score model used only the previous five calendar seasons. Its probability curve used earlier out-of-sample score forecasts, with forfeits excluded. The comparison uses the prior stage-calibration method; it does not apply the fixed 2026 profile to earlier years. These retrospective checks are separate from live validation. The fixed 2026.3 profile uses 2021–2025 data.

Historical training and evaluation exclude 248 forfeit or administrative fixtures, including 222 explicitly flagged forfeits. The model and stage choices were selected retrospectively. Corrected historical results and reviewed flags were held fixed; original result-publication and forfeit-announcement times are unavailable.

View model performance and historical evidence →
Final
Aug 29, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

8
St John's College {Scarlet} (7-1)

Division 2

Washington, DC

45
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Sep 04, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

14

Hewlett Sports Academy

6
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Sep 10, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

6

McDonogh School

38
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Sep 18, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

0

The St James Performance Academy

65
No pregame prediction recorded
Cancelled
Sep 25, 2026

St Frances Academy

Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

cancel (JoeEitel verified 2026-10-26)
Final
Oct 02, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

6

DeMatha Catholic

42
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Oct 09, 2026

Friendship Collegiate (DC)

20
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

8
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Oct 16, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

14
Loudoun Sports Academy {National Black} (4-5)

Leesburg, VA

49
No pregame prediction recorded
Final
Oct 23, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

6
Elder Logo
Elder (8-2)

Division 1, Region 4

52

Pick: L by 20 (6.8%)

Projected score: 12–32

High calibration

Version 2026.1 Pregame projection Oct 22, 2026 10:35 AM

Scheduled
Oct 30, 2026
Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

Rabun Gap - Nacoochee (5-4)

Rabun Gap, GA

Pick: L by 25 (3.6%)

Projected score: 9–34

Medium calibration Blowout Range

Version 2026.3 Live projection Nov 4, 2026 12:44 PM

Cancelled
Nov 07, 2026

Huron Heights

Mt. Zion Prep (1-7)

Lanham, MD

Retired stale schedule entry after JoeEitel verification (2026-10-26): this unplayed pairing is absent from the owner’s current source schedule. This is a data cleanup exclusion, not a claim that the old pairing was officially cancelled.

Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These ratings are computed using my implementation of the OHSAA playoff rating system outlined here, and do not reflect any personal opinions or bias regarding the relative strength or ability of any individual teams. By viewing these ratings, you agree that any misinformation provided is unintentional. Further, you also agree that the site owner and/or content writer cannot and will not be held responsible for any damages resulting from use of information published on this site.

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