Games evaluated
348
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 10, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 11, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
348 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
71.3%
248 correct
Average margin error
21.8
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.181
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
15.2%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 348
- Winner accuracy
- 71.3%
- Margin error
- 21.8
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 6 | 8.1% | 16.7% | +8.6 | 0.140 |
| 10–19% | 37 | 15.2% | 5.4% | -9.8 | 0.061 |
| 20–29% | 27 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.7 | 0.171 |
| 30–39% | 40 | 35.2% | 27.5% | -7.7 | 0.193 |
| 40–49% | 63 | 45.3% | 49.2% | +3.9 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 59 | 55.2% | 59.3% | +4.2 | 0.243 |
| 60–69% | 37 | 64.3% | 59.5% | -4.9 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 48 | 74.9% | 83.3% | +8.4 | 0.140 |
| 80–89% | 27 | 84.3% | 92.6% | +8.3 | 0.075 |
| 90–99% | 4 | 91.4% | 100.0% | +8.6 | 0.007 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 338 | 70.7% | 21.6 points |
| Medium | 10 | 90.0% | 28.3 points |
| Low | 0 | — | — |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Game | 210 | 59.5% | 19.5 points |
| Upset Possible | 199 | 59.3% | 19.4 points |
| Limited Data | 5 | 40.0% | 26.0 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bellbrook vs. Monroe | 21–26 | 56–0 | 60.6 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Norwalk vs. Perkins | 12–29 | 0–75 | 58.3 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erie Mason vs. Whiteford | 14–28 | 0–72 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Waterford vs. Federal Hocking | 25–15 | 68–0 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Blanchester vs. Williamsburg | 23–20 | 18–69 | 54.3 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 10, 2026
Holgate vs. Stryker
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 44–62
- Projected winner
- Holgate
- Margin error
- 19.5
Oct 10, 2026
Manchester vs. Linsly
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 22–49
- Projected winner
- Manchester
- Margin error
- 30.9
Oct 10, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. Fremont St. Joseph
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 24–44
- Projected winner
- Sebring McKinley
- Margin error
- 27.1
Oct 10, 2026
Chalker vs. Windham
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 54–36
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 25.8
Oct 10, 2026
Johnstown Northridge vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 12–41
- Projected winner
- Newark Catholic
- Margin error
- 22.9
Oct 10, 2026
Montpelier vs. Hilltop
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 52–29
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 19.3
Oct 10, 2026
Hanoverton United vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 29–14
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 23.6
Oct 10, 2026
Bethel vs. Sidney Lehman
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 42–12
- Projected winner
- Bethel
- Margin error
- 28.5
Oct 10, 2026
Brooklyn vs. Trinity
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 32–28
- Projected winner
- Trinity
- Margin error
- 6.9
Oct 10, 2026
Ponitz vs. Meadowdale
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Meadowdale
- Margin error
- 32.4
Oct 10, 2026
Firestone vs. Akron Garfield
- Projected
- 15–19
- Final
- 26–27
- Projected winner
- Akron Garfield
- Margin error
- 2.6
Oct 10, 2026
Ellet vs. Buchtel
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 16–18
- Projected winner
- Buchtel
- Margin error
- 5.5
Oct 9, 2026
Erie Mason vs. Whiteford
- Projected
- 14–28
- Final
- 0–72
- Projected winner
- Whiteford
- Margin error
- 58.0
Oct 9, 2026
Farrell vs. Sharpsville
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 60–0
- Projected winner
- Farrell
- Margin error
- 50.6
Oct 9, 2026
U of D Jesuit vs. Dearborn Divine Child
- Projected
- 13–29
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Dearborn Divine Child
- Margin error
- 11.6
Oct 9, 2026
Orchard Lake St. Mary vs. Detroit Catholic Central
- Projected
- 26–27
- Final
- 20–27
- Projected winner
- Detroit Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 6.3
Oct 9, 2026
Covington Catholic vs. Cathedral
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- Covington Catholic
- Margin error
- 13.5
Oct 9, 2026
Riverside vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 34–6
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 18.2
Oct 9, 2026
Marion Local vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 28–22
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 29.2
Oct 9, 2026
Beaver Eastern vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 49–21
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 19.2
Oct 9, 2026
Bradford vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 26.1
Oct 9, 2026
Waterford vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 68–0
- Projected winner
- Waterford
- Margin error
- 58.0
Oct 9, 2026
South Gallia vs. Franklin Furnace Green
- Projected
- 22–15
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 39.9
Oct 9, 2026
Frontier vs. Cameron
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 14–46
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 37.2
Oct 9, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 55–30
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 20.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | 22–20 | 44–62 | Holgate | Stryker | 19.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 21–18 | 22–49 | Manchester | Linsly | 30.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 23–16 | 24–44 | Sebring McKinley | Fremont St. Joseph | 27.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 19–26 | 54–36 | Windham | Chalker | 25.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 17–24 | 12–41 | Newark Catholic | Newark Catholic | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 21–18 | 52–29 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 19.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 29–14 | 45–7 | Hanoverton United | Hanoverton United | 23.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 19–18 | 42–12 | Bethel | Bethel | 28.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 15–18 | 32–28 | Trinity | Brooklyn | 6.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 19–20 | 32–0 | Meadowdale | Ponitz | 32.4 | Missed | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 15–19 | 26–27 | Akron Garfield | Akron Garfield | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | 15–23 | 16–18 | Buchtel | Buchtel | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 14–28 | 0–72 | Whiteford | Whiteford | 58.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–16 | 60–0 | Farrell | Farrell | 50.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–29 | 0–27 | Dearborn Divine Child | Dearborn Divine Child | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–27 | 20–27 | Detroit Catholic Central | Detroit Catholic Central | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–22 | 20–28 | Covington Catholic | Cathedral | 13.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–15 | 34–6 | Riverside | Riverside | 18.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–22 | 42–7 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 29.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–17 | 49–21 | Beaver Eastern | Beaver Eastern | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 7–45 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 26.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–15 | 68–0 | Waterford | Waterford | 58.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 22–15 | 47–0 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–21 | 14–46 | Frontier | Cameron | 37.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–19 | 55–30 | Reedsville Eastern | Reedsville Eastern | 20.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.