Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Groveport-Madison
- Margin error
- 31.4
Sep 4, 2026
Grove City vs. Hilliard Bradley
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 21–56
- Projected winner
- Grove City
- Margin error
- 40.9
Sep 4, 2026
Central Crossing vs. Westland
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 21.9
Sep 4, 2026
Whitmer vs. Southview
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 37–6
- Projected winner
- Southview
- Margin error
- 33.0
Sep 4, 2026
Start vs. Milan Edison
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 6–22
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 19.7
Sep 4, 2026
Springfield vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 9–25
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 13.8
Sep 4, 2026
Springboro vs. Withrow
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 23–13
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 20.6
Sep 4, 2026
Perrysburg vs. Fremont Ross
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Fremont Ross
- Margin error
- 33.3
Sep 4, 2026
Olentangy Liberty vs. Gahanna Lincoln
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 13–14
- Projected winner
- Gahanna Lincoln
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 4, 2026
Northmont vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- KIPP Columbus
- Margin error
- 38.5
Sep 4, 2026
Middletown vs. Fairfield
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 27–20
- Projected winner
- Fairfield
- Margin error
- 13.3
Sep 4, 2026
Miamisburg vs. Hilliard Davidson
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Miamisburg
- Margin error
- 4.8
Sep 4, 2026
Marysville vs. Lancaster
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 15–10
- Projected winner
- Marysville
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 4, 2026
Fairmont vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 24–21
- Projected winner
- LaSalle
- Margin error
- 13.3
Sep 4, 2026
Findlay vs. Holland Springfield
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 37–20
- Projected winner
- Holland Springfield
- Margin error
- 18.3
Sep 4, 2026
Dublin Coffman vs. Dublin Jerome
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 28–45
- Projected winner
- Dublin Coffman
- Margin error
- 23.3
Sep 4, 2026
Delaware Hayes vs. Thomas Worthington
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 16–20
- Projected winner
- Thomas Worthington
- Margin error
- 3.5
Sep 4, 2026
Centerville vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Centerville
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 4, 2026
Beavercreek vs. Harrison
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 28–33
- Projected winner
- Beavercreek
- Margin error
- 6.5
Sep 4, 2026
Strongsville vs. Olmsted Falls
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 21–38
- Projected winner
- Strongsville
- Margin error
- 17.4
Sep 4, 2026
Lakewood St. Edward vs. Wayne
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 48–21
- Projected winner
- Lakewood St. Edward
- Margin error
- 26.2
Sep 4, 2026
Solon vs. Twinsburg
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 24–12
- Projected winner
- Twinsburg
- Margin error
- 14.7
Sep 4, 2026
Shaker Heights vs. Mayfield
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 13–43
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 24.8
Sep 4, 2026
Mentor vs. St. Ignatius
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 7–51
- Projected winner
- Mentor
- Margin error
- 48.0
Sep 4, 2026
Lorain vs. Amherst Steele
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 16–56
- Projected winner
- Amherst Steele
- Margin error
- 34.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–17 | 42–7 | Groveport-Madison | Groveport-Madison | 31.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 21–56 | Grove City | Hilliard Bradley | 40.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 14–26 | 7–40 | Westland | Westland | 21.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 37–6 | Southview | Whitmer | 33.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–18 | 6–22 | Start | Milan Edison | 19.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 9–25 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 13.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–28 | 23–13 | Withrow | Springboro | 20.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–25 | 40–7 | Fremont Ross | Perrysburg | 33.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–24 | 13–14 | Gahanna Lincoln | Gahanna Lincoln | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–21 | 38–0 | KIPP Columbus | Northmont | 38.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–23 | 27–20 | Fairfield | Middletown | 13.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–20 | 21–14 | Miamisburg | Miamisburg | 4.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–18 | 15–10 | Marysville | Marysville | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–27 | 24–21 | LaSalle | Fairmont | 13.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–23 | 37–20 | Holland Springfield | Findlay | 18.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–17 | 28–45 | Dublin Coffman | Dublin Jerome | 23.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–22 | 16–20 | Thomas Worthington | Thomas Worthington | 3.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–18 | 6–20 | Centerville | Olentangy Berlin | 16.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–23 | 28–33 | Beavercreek | Harrison | 6.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–21 | 21–38 | Strongsville | Olmsted Falls | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–20 | 48–21 | Lakewood St. Edward | Lakewood St. Edward | 26.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–21 | 24–12 | Twinsburg | Solon | 14.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–25 | 13–43 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 24.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–19 | 7–51 | Mentor | St. Ignatius | 48.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–24 | 16–56 | Amherst Steele | Amherst Steele | 34.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
