Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
John Hay vs. Scott
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 35–22
- Projected winner
- John Hay
- Margin error
- 12.0
Sep 4, 2026
Brush vs. Willoughby South
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 21–45
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 14.3
Sep 4, 2026
Boardman vs. Youngstown Liberty
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 14–27
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 0.6
Sep 4, 2026
Benedictine vs. Lutheran West
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Benedictine
- Margin error
- 37.6
Sep 4, 2026
Bedford vs. Padua Franciscan
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Bedford
- Margin error
- 31.3
Sep 4, 2026
Austintown-Fitch vs. Painesville Riverside
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 42–10
- Projected winner
- Painesville Riverside
- Margin error
- 37.8
Sep 4, 2026
Western Hills vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 66–48
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 22.5
Sep 4, 2026
Walnut Hills vs. Turpin
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 19–43
- Projected winner
- Walnut Hills
- Margin error
- 25.1
Sep 4, 2026
St. Xavier vs. Cathedral
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 21–30
- Projected winner
- St. Xavier
- Margin error
- 9.5
Sep 4, 2026
Milford vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 28–50
- Projected winner
- Winton Woods
- Margin error
- 18.8
Sep 4, 2026
Lebanon vs. West Clermont
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 34–20
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 13.6
Sep 4, 2026
Lakota West vs. Mason
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 35–10
- Projected winner
- Lakota West
- Margin error
- 22.6
Sep 4, 2026
Lakota East vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 31–28
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 5.8
Sep 4, 2026
Hamilton vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 31–21
- Projected winner
- Sycamore
- Margin error
- 11.5
Sep 4, 2026
Elder vs. East Central
- Projected
- 27–24
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 31.7
Sep 4, 2026
Colerain vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 39.4
Sep 4, 2026
Moeller vs. Trinity
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 18.0
Sep 4, 2026
Westerville Central vs. Westerville North
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 6–14
- Projected winner
- Westerville Central
- Margin error
- 10.7
Sep 4, 2026
Upper Arlington vs. Avon
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 43–22
- Projected winner
- Upper Arlington
- Margin error
- 15.9
Sep 4, 2026
Reynoldsburg vs. Big Walnut
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 7–44
- Projected winner
- Reynoldsburg
- Margin error
- 39.5
Sep 4, 2026
Pickerington Central vs. Pickerington North
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–27
- Projected winner
- Pickerington North
- Margin error
- 20.5
Sep 4, 2026
Olentangy Orange vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Olentangy
- Margin error
- 21.5
Sep 4, 2026
Newark vs. Zanesville
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–32
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 21.6
Sep 4, 2026
New Albany vs. Dublin Scioto
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Dublin Scioto
- Margin error
- 54.3
Sep 4, 2026
Hilliard Darby vs. Walnut Ridge
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Darby
- Margin error
- 27.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–17 | 35–22 | John Hay | John Hay | 12.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–27 | 21–45 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–29 | 14–27 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–18 | 41–0 | Benedictine | Benedictine | 37.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–19 | 6–35 | Bedford | Padua Franciscan | 31.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–24 | 42–10 | Painesville Riverside | Austintown-Fitch | 37.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–22 | 66–48 | Cincinnati Country Day | Western Hills | 22.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–18 | 19–43 | Walnut Hills | Turpin | 25.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–23 | 21–30 | St. Xavier | Cathedral | 9.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–24 | 28–50 | Winton Woods | Winton Woods | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–21 | 34–20 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 13.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 35–10 | Lakota West | Lakota West | 22.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–23 | 31–28 | Oak Hills | Lakota East | 5.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–19 | 31–21 | Sycamore | Hamilton | 11.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–24 | 42–7 | Elder | Elder | 31.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–24 | 6–49 | Princeton | Princeton | 39.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–24 | 14–31 | Moeller | Trinity | 18.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 6–14 | Westerville Central | Westerville North | 10.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–19 | 43–22 | Upper Arlington | Upper Arlington | 15.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 7–44 | Reynoldsburg | Big Walnut | 39.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–27 | Pickerington North | Pickerington North | 20.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–21 | 28–7 | Olentangy | Olentangy Orange | 21.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–32 | Newark | Zanesville | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 18–24 | 56–7 | Dublin Scioto | New Albany | 54.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–17 | 34–0 | Hilliard Darby | Hilliard Darby | 27.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
