Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Defiance vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 0–29
- Projected winner
- Defiance
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 4, 2026
Tiffin Columbian vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–49
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 18.8
Sep 4, 2026
Cloverleaf vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 14–7
- Projected winner
- Carrollton
- Margin error
- 11.1
Sep 4, 2026
Medina Buckeye vs. Keystone
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 29–40
- Projected winner
- Keystone
- Margin error
- 2.5
Sep 4, 2026
Bay vs. Firelands
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 0–30
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 24.2
Sep 4, 2026
Ashland vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 21–19
- Projected winner
- Ashland
- Margin error
- 3.6
Sep 4, 2026
West Geauga vs. Chagrin Falls
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Chagrin Falls
- Margin error
- 44.0
Sep 4, 2026
Steubenville vs. Linsly
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 31.1
Sep 4, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. Ravenna
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 33–26
- Projected winner
- Ravenna
- Margin error
- 18.6
Sep 4, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. Indian Valley
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 14–37
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 11.3
Sep 4, 2026
Marlington vs. Norton
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 10–35
- Projected winner
- Norton
- Margin error
- 22.0
Sep 4, 2026
Kenston vs. ND Cathedral Latin
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 20.0
Sep 4, 2026
Hubbard vs. Warren JFK
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 47–35
- Projected winner
- Warren JFK
- Margin error
- 13.8
Sep 4, 2026
Howland vs. Shaw
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 37–12
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 23.1
Sep 4, 2026
Youngstown vs. South Range
- Projected
- 16–30
- Final
- 28–48
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 6.3
Sep 4, 2026
Akron East vs. Canton South
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Akron East
- Margin error
- 26.3
Sep 4, 2026
Coventry vs. Akron Springfield
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 20–2
- Projected winner
- Coventry
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 4, 2026
Dover vs. Louisville
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 14–15
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 5.5
Sep 4, 2026
Chardon vs. McDowell
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 31–38
- Projected winner
- McDowell
- Margin error
- 4.2
Sep 4, 2026
Canfield vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 7–19
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 2.0
Sep 4, 2026
Aurora vs. Tallmadge
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 14–24
- Projected winner
- Aurora
- Margin error
- 16.1
Sep 4, 2026
Alliance vs. Streetsboro
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 26–37
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 9.2
Sep 4, 2026
Xenia vs. Butler
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 16–31
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 3.2
Sep 4, 2026
Columbus West vs. Centennial
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Columbus West
- Margin error
- 30.4
Sep 4, 2026
Troy vs. West Carrollton
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 57–6
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 49.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–21 | 0–29 | Defiance | Wapakoneta | 30.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–49 | Ontario | Ontario | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–24 | 14–7 | Carrollton | Cloverleaf | 11.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–25 | 29–40 | Keystone | Keystone | 2.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–22 | 0–30 | Firelands | Firelands | 24.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–19 | 21–19 | Ashland | Ashland | 3.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–24 | 40–0 | Chagrin Falls | West Geauga | 44.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–17 | 48–7 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 31.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–28 | 33–26 | Ravenna | Niles McKinley | 18.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–27 | 14–37 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–25 | 10–35 | Norton | Norton | 22.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–28 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 47–35 | Warren JFK | Hubbard | 13.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–20 | 37–12 | Howland | Howland | 23.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–30 | 28–48 | South Range | South Range | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–19 | 34–7 | Akron East | Akron East | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–17 | 20–2 | Coventry | Coventry | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–17 | 14–15 | Dover | Louisville | 5.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–21 | 31–38 | McDowell | McDowell | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 17–27 | 7–19 | Cardinal Mooney | Cardinal Mooney | 2.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–17 | 14–24 | Aurora | Tallmadge | 16.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–22 | 26–37 | Streetsboro | Streetsboro | 9.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–28 | 16–31 | Butler | Butler | 3.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 24–18 | 36–0 | Columbus West | Columbus West | 30.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–18 | 57–6 | Troy | Troy | 49.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
