Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Clearview vs. Black River
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 28–41
- Projected winner
- Clearview
- Margin error
- 14.4
Sep 11, 2026
Clear Fork vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 7–17
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 3.3
Sep 11, 2026
Bryan vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 16–22
- Projected winner
- Patrick Henry
- Margin error
- 0.4
Sep 11, 2026
Brookside vs. Firelands
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 37–40
- Projected winner
- Brookside
- Margin error
- 10.1
Sep 11, 2026
Shaw vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 12.2
Sep 11, 2026
Perry vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 62–0
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 51.1
Sep 11, 2026
Canal Fulton Northwest vs. Triway
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 21–18
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 3.2
Sep 11, 2026
Lakeview vs. South Range
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 9–56
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 31.9
Sep 11, 2026
Girard vs. Struthers
- Projected
- 28–16
- Final
- 49–12
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 24.5
Sep 11, 2026
Field vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 7–62
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 47.4
Sep 11, 2026
Fairless vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 37–0
- Projected winner
- Fairless
- Margin error
- 33.8
Sep 11, 2026
Canton South vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 13–37
- Projected winner
- Akron Manchester
- Margin error
- 20.5
Sep 11, 2026
Beaver vs. East Liverpool
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Tie
- Margin error
- 21.0
Sep 11, 2026
Cincinnati Woodward vs. Thurgood Marshall
- Projected
- 17–15
- Final
- 8–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Woodward
- Margin error
- 6.8
Sep 11, 2026
Wapakoneta vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 18–30
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 8.6
Sep 11, 2026
Lima Shawnee vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 28–34
- Projected winner
- Lima Shawnee
- Margin error
- 8.2
Sep 11, 2026
New Richmond vs. Cincinnati Hills CA
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 19–36
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 18.3
Sep 11, 2026
Mount Healthy vs. Taft
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Mount Healthy
- Margin error
- 30.2
Sep 11, 2026
Monroe vs. Ponitz
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 42.9
Sep 11, 2026
Hughes vs. Purcell Marian
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 16–8
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 3.4
Sep 11, 2026
Goshen vs. Bethel-Tate
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 26.0
Sep 11, 2026
Elida vs. Kenton
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 20–35
- Projected winner
- Elida
- Margin error
- 17.1
Sep 11, 2026
Celina vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 49–28
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 22.0
Sep 11, 2026
Archbishop Carroll vs. Cincinnati Northwest
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 0–26
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 24.3
Sep 11, 2026
Bellbrook vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 29–7
- Projected winner
- Bellbrook
- Margin error
- 12.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–18 | 28–41 | Clearview | Black River | 14.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–27 | 7–17 | Ontario | Ontario | 3.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 16–22 | Patrick Henry | Patrick Henry | 0.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–17 | 37–40 | Brookside | Firelands | 10.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–22 | 14–26 | Shaw | Richmond Heights | 12.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–16 | 62–0 | Perry | Perry | 51.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 21–18 | Triway | Canal Fulton Northwest | 3.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 14–29 | 9–56 | South Range | South Range | 31.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 28–16 | 49–12 | Girard | Girard | 24.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–25 | 7–62 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 47.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–21 | 37–0 | Fairless | Fairless | 33.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–21 | 13–37 | Akron Manchester | Akron Manchester | 20.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–22 | 28–7 | Tie | Beaver | 21.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–15 | 8–0 | Cincinnati Woodward | Cincinnati Woodward | 6.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–30 | 24–27 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–20 | 28–34 | Lima Shawnee | Lima Bath | 8.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 19–36 | New Richmond | Cincinnati Hills CA | 18.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–16 | 35–0 | Mount Healthy | Mount Healthy | 30.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–17 | 48–0 | Monroe | Monroe | 42.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–19 | 16–8 | Hughes | Hughes | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–16 | 42–7 | Goshen | Goshen | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–19 | 20–35 | Elida | Kenton | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 49–28 | Van Wert | Celina | 22.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 0–26 | Cincinnati Northwest | Cincinnati Northwest | 24.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–18 | 29–7 | Bellbrook | Bellbrook | 12.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
