Games evaluated
348
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 10, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 11, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
348 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
71.3%
248 correct
Average margin error
21.8
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.181
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
15.2%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 348
- Winner accuracy
- 71.3%
- Margin error
- 21.8
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 6 | 8.1% | 16.7% | +8.6 | 0.140 |
| 10–19% | 37 | 15.2% | 5.4% | -9.8 | 0.061 |
| 20–29% | 27 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.7 | 0.171 |
| 30–39% | 40 | 35.2% | 27.5% | -7.7 | 0.193 |
| 40–49% | 63 | 45.3% | 49.2% | +3.9 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 59 | 55.2% | 59.3% | +4.2 | 0.243 |
| 60–69% | 37 | 64.3% | 59.5% | -4.9 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 48 | 74.9% | 83.3% | +8.4 | 0.140 |
| 80–89% | 27 | 84.3% | 92.6% | +8.3 | 0.075 |
| 90–99% | 4 | 91.4% | 100.0% | +8.6 | 0.007 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 338 | 70.7% | 21.6 points |
| Medium | 10 | 90.0% | 28.3 points |
| Low | 0 | — | — |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Game | 210 | 59.5% | 19.5 points |
| Upset Possible | 199 | 59.3% | 19.4 points |
| Limited Data | 5 | 40.0% | 26.0 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bellbrook vs. Monroe | 21–26 | 56–0 | 60.6 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Norwalk vs. Perkins | 12–29 | 0–75 | 58.3 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erie Mason vs. Whiteford | 14–28 | 0–72 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Waterford vs. Federal Hocking | 25–15 | 68–0 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Blanchester vs. Williamsburg | 23–20 | 18–69 | 54.3 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Martins Ferry vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 27–25
- Final
- 21–25
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 6.0
Oct 9, 2026
Youngstown Liberty vs. LaBrae
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 30.3
Oct 9, 2026
Grand Valley vs. Cardinal
- Projected
- 23–14
- Final
- 40–12
- Projected winner
- Grand Valley
- Margin error
- 18.2
Oct 9, 2026
Garrettsville Garfield vs. Newton Falls
- Projected
- 29–16
- Final
- 50–14
- Projected winner
- Garrettsville Garfield
- Margin error
- 23.6
Oct 9, 2026
Crestwood vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Crestwood
- Margin error
- 5.3
Oct 9, 2026
Conneaut vs. Rootstown
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Conneaut
- Margin error
- 17.5
Oct 9, 2026
Champion vs. Columbiana Crestview
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Champion
- Margin error
- 40.2
Oct 9, 2026
Bellaire vs. Harrison Central
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Bellaire
- Margin error
- 31.2
Oct 9, 2026
Beachwood vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 0–59
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 48.7
Oct 9, 2026
Wyoming vs. Finneytown
- Projected
- 30–11
- Final
- 51–0
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 32.1
Oct 9, 2026
Waynesville vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Waynesville
- Margin error
- 24.9
Oct 9, 2026
Waverly vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 20–27
- Projected winner
- Waverly
- Margin error
- 10.5
Oct 9, 2026
Unioto vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 42–14
- Projected winner
- Unioto
- Margin error
- 26.1
Oct 9, 2026
Taylor vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 13–32
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 2.3
Oct 9, 2026
Oakwood vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 27–14
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 5.2
Oct 9, 2026
Norwood vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 13–24
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 29.8
Oct 9, 2026
Springfield Northwestern vs. North Union
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 39.5
Oct 9, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. Covington
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 13–33
- Projected winner
- Covington
- Margin error
- 17.6
Oct 9, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 0–32
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 21.4
Oct 9, 2026
Kenton Ridge vs. Urbana
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 21–14
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 6.6
Oct 9, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 28–19
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 26.4
Oct 9, 2026
Graham Local vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 29–15
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 35.1
Oct 9, 2026
Eaton vs. Brookville
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 62–48
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 15.3
Oct 9, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. Clermont Northeastern
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 9–13
- Projected winner
- Clermont Northeastern
- Margin error
- 1.5
Oct 9, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. Richmond Edison
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 29–28
- Projected winner
- Richmond Edison
- Margin error
- 1.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–25 | 21–25 | Martins Ferry | Barnesville | 6.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–21 | 35–0 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–14 | 40–12 | Grand Valley | Grand Valley | 18.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 29–16 | 50–14 | Garrettsville Garfield | Garrettsville Garfield | 23.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–19 | 28–21 | Crestwood | Crestwood | 5.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–20 | 35–14 | Conneaut | Conneaut | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–19 | 0–40 | Champion | Columbiana Crestview | 40.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–18 | 34–0 | Bellaire | Bellaire | 31.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–27 | 0–59 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 48.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 30–11 | 51–0 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–13 | 45–7 | Waynesville | Waynesville | 24.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–22 | 20–27 | Waverly | Wheelersburg | 10.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–23 | 42–14 | Unioto | Unioto | 26.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–32 | 14–31 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–20 | 27–14 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–24 | 0–41 | Cincinnati Country Day | Cincinnati Country Day | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–28 | 0–54 | North Union | North Union | 39.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–22 | 13–33 | Covington | Covington | 17.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–27 | 0–32 | Miami East | Miami East | 21.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–24 | 21–14 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 28–19 | 35–0 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 26.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 29–15 | 49–0 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 35.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–21 | 62–48 | Brookville | Eaton | 15.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–21 | 9–13 | Clermont Northeastern | Clermont Northeastern | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–20 | 29–28 | Richmond Edison | Vincent Warren | 1.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
