Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Madison vs. Willoughby South
- Projected
- 16–30
- Final
- 7–30
- Projected winner
- Willoughby South
- Margin error
- 9.8
Sep 18, 2026
Lakeside vs. Ashtabula Edgewood
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 20–35
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula Edgewood
- Margin error
- 6.5
Sep 18, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Padua Franciscan
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Padua Franciscan
- Margin error
- 29.6
Sep 18, 2026
Hudson vs. Nordonia
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 9–23
- Projected winner
- Hudson
- Margin error
- 14.8
Sep 18, 2026
Garfield Heights vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 14–20
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 18, 2026
Firestone vs. Maple Heights
- Projected
- 12–25
- Final
- 20–50
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 16.7
Sep 18, 2026
Ellet vs. Shaw
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 1.7
Sep 18, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Field
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 0–1
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Falls
- Margin error
- 3.2
Sep 18, 2026
John Hay vs. Gilmour Academy
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- John Hay
- Margin error
- 44.1
Sep 18, 2026
Brush vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Richmond Heights
- Margin error
- 36.3
Sep 18, 2026
Boardman vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Margin error
- 12.9
Sep 18, 2026
Benedictine vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 6–0
- Projected winner
- Benedictine
- Margin error
- 2.5
Sep 18, 2026
Bedford vs. ND Cathedral Latin
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 12–42
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 25.3
Sep 18, 2026
Western Hills vs. North College Hill
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- North College Hill
- Margin error
- 48.7
Sep 18, 2026
Walnut Hills vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Winton Woods
- Margin error
- 41.1
Sep 18, 2026
Milford vs. West Clermont
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 41–43
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 1.3
Sep 18, 2026
Mason vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 21–28
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 4.7
Sep 18, 2026
Lebanon vs. Little Miami
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 36–35
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 18, 2026
Lakota West vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 0.7
Sep 18, 2026
Hamilton vs. Lakota East
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 13–37
- Projected winner
- Lakota East
- Margin error
- 16.2
Sep 18, 2026
Fairfield vs. Sycamore
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 42–19
- Projected winner
- Sycamore
- Margin error
- 23.9
Sep 18, 2026
Elder vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 28–23
- Final
- 31–0
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 18, 2026
Moeller vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 30–15
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 12.4
Sep 18, 2026
Westland vs. Cleveland East Tech
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Westland
- Margin error
- 34.4
Sep 18, 2026
Westerville Central vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–24
- Projected winner
- Westerville Central
- Margin error
- 12.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–30 | 7–30 | Willoughby South | Willoughby South | 9.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–25 | 20–35 | Ashtabula Edgewood | Ashtabula Edgewood | 6.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–22 | 6–41 | Padua Franciscan | Padua Franciscan | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–24 | 9–23 | Hudson | Nordonia | 14.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 14–20 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 5.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 12–25 | 20–50 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 16.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–22 | 7–12 | Shaw | Shaw | 1.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–18 | 0–1 | Cuyahoga Falls | Field | 3.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–18 | 0–40 | John Hay | Gilmour Academy | 44.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–24 | 33–0 | Richmond Heights | Brush | 36.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–25 | 7–28 | Cuyahoga Valley CA | Cuyahoga Valley CA | 12.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–19 | 6–0 | Benedictine | Benedictine | 2.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 12–42 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 25.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–25 | 0–54 | North College Hill | North College Hill | 48.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 14–27 | 0–54 | Winton Woods | Winton Woods | 41.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–20 | 41–43 | West Clermont | West Clermont | 1.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–22 | 21–28 | Oak Hills | Oak Hills | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 36–35 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–26 | 24–27 | Princeton | Princeton | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–24 | 13–37 | Lakota East | Lakota East | 16.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–19 | 42–19 | Sycamore | Fairfield | 23.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–23 | 31–0 | Elder | Elder | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–22 | 30–15 | Moeller | Moeller | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–13 | 48–0 | Westland | Westland | 34.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–24 | Westerville Central | Olentangy Berlin | 12.1 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
