Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Coventry vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–56
- Projected winner
- Akron Manchester
- Margin error
- 50.8
Sep 18, 2026
Canfield vs. Youngstown
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Youngstown
- Margin error
- 5.1
Sep 18, 2026
Alliance vs. Minerva
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 41–10
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 35.0
Sep 18, 2026
Withrow vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 21–24
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 18, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Benjamin Logan
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Benjamin Logan
- Margin error
- 26.5
Sep 18, 2026
Talawanda vs. Archbishop Carroll
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Talawanda
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 18, 2026
Sidney vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 20–54
- Projected winner
- Sidney
- Margin error
- 40.8
Sep 18, 2026
Stebbins vs. Greenville
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 21–12
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 2.2
Sep 18, 2026
Piqua vs. West Carrollton
- Projected
- 19–16
- Final
- 19–7
- Projected winner
- Piqua
- Margin error
- 8.1
Sep 18, 2026
Loveland vs. Turpin
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- Turpin
- Margin error
- 20.0
Sep 18, 2026
Lima Senior vs. Rogers
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 79–6
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 62.8
Sep 18, 2026
LaSalle vs. Hamilton Badin
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 27–14
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 19.7
Sep 18, 2026
Harrison vs. Ross
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 14.7
Sep 18, 2026
Fairborn vs. Troy
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 14–31
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 18, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 38–22
- Projected winner
- Trenton Edgewood
- Margin error
- 12.6
Sep 18, 2026
Belmont vs. Dunbar
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Belmont
- Margin error
- 7.6
Sep 18, 2026
Anderson vs. Kings
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 49–33
- Projected winner
- Anderson
- Margin error
- 7.2
Sep 18, 2026
Wooster vs. Lexington
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 30–44
- Projected winner
- Wooster
- Margin error
- 15.2
Sep 18, 2026
Whitehall-Yearling vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Whitehall-Yearling
- Margin error
- 22.3
Sep 18, 2026
Whetstone vs. Bexley
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Bexley
- Margin error
- 40.3
Sep 18, 2026
Watkins Memorial vs. Heath
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 17–10
- Projected winner
- Heath
- Margin error
- 11.5
Sep 18, 2026
St. Charles vs. Franklin Heights
- Projected
- 30–14
- Final
- 36–10
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 10.4
Sep 18, 2026
Northland vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 0–70
- Projected winner
- Columbus East
- Margin error
- 61.9
Sep 18, 2026
Mount Vernon vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Newark Catholic
- Margin error
- 8.8
Sep 18, 2026
Marion Harding vs. River Valley
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 26–8
- Projected winner
- Marion Harding
- Margin error
- 14.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–56 | Akron Manchester | Akron Manchester | 50.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 28–27 | Youngstown | Canfield | 5.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–22 | 41–10 | Minerva | Alliance | 35.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–21 | 21–24 | Withrow | Archbishop McNicholas | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–23 | 6–35 | Benjamin Logan | Benjamin Logan | 26.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–15 | 42–0 | Talawanda | Talawanda | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–16 | 20–54 | Sidney | Xenia | 40.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–16 | 21–12 | Stebbins | Stebbins | 2.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–16 | 19–7 | Piqua | Piqua | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–19 | 21–42 | Turpin | Turpin | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–14 | 79–6 | Lima Senior | Lima Senior | 62.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–26 | 27–14 | Hamilton Badin | LaSalle | 19.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–20 | 28–7 | Harrison | Harrison | 14.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 14–31 | Troy | Troy | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–18 | 38–22 | Trenton Edgewood | Trenton Edgewood | 12.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–20 | 24–27 | Belmont | Dunbar | 7.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–19 | 49–33 | Anderson | Anderson | 7.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–19 | 30–44 | Wooster | Lexington | 15.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–18 | 27–0 | Whitehall-Yearling | Whitehall-Yearling | 22.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–42 | Bexley | Bexley | 40.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 17–10 | Heath | Watkins Memorial | 11.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 30–14 | 36–10 | St. Charles | St. Charles | 10.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–25 | 0–70 | Columbus East | Columbus East | 61.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 28–21 | Newark Catholic | Mount Vernon | 8.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–17 | 26–8 | Marion Harding | Marion Harding | 14.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
