Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Cambridge vs. Bellaire
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 22–42
- Projected winner
- Bellaire
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 18, 2026
Bloom-Carroll vs. Fairfield Union
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 30–13
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Union
- Margin error
- 19.5
Sep 18, 2026
Wauseon vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 6–33
- Projected winner
- Patrick Henry
- Margin error
- 22.9
Sep 18, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 28.0
Sep 18, 2026
Triway vs. Tuslaw
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 51–0
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 48.1
Sep 18, 2026
Shelby vs. Highland
- Projected
- 30–17
- Final
- 47–6
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 28.5
Sep 18, 2026
Rossford vs. Millbury Lake
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 57–56
- Projected winner
- Rossford
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 18, 2026
Kenton vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 48–49
- Projected winner
- Lima Bath
- Margin error
- 5.9
Sep 18, 2026
Galion vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 28–46
- Projected winner
- Ontario
- Margin error
- 11.2
Sep 18, 2026
Clyde vs. Port Clinton
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 10–24
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 4.5
Sep 18, 2026
Clearview vs. Wellington
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Clearview
- Margin error
- 3.8
Sep 18, 2026
Clear Fork vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Marion Pleasant
- Margin error
- 45.8
Sep 18, 2026
Bryan vs. Liberty Center
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 6–61
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 43.1
Sep 18, 2026
Brookside vs. Keystone
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 24–56
- Projected winner
- Keystone
- Margin error
- 30.4
Sep 18, 2026
Bellevue vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 3–10
- Projected winner
- Perkins
- Margin error
- 4.5
Sep 18, 2026
Struthers vs. South Range
- Projected
- 13–31
- Final
- 6–56
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 32.1
Sep 18, 2026
John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 68–6
- Projected winner
- Cleveland JFK
- Margin error
- 64.4
Sep 18, 2026
Hawken vs. Perry
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 0–62
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 57.9
Sep 18, 2026
Girard vs. Garaway
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 41–35
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 5.9
Sep 18, 2026
Fairless vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 20–25
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 18, 2026
East Liverpool vs. St. Clairsville
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–21
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 16.1
Sep 18, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Rootstown
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 35–28
- Projected winner
- Chagrin Falls
- Margin error
- 4.2
Sep 18, 2026
Canton South vs. Canal Fulton Northwest
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 7–24
- Projected winner
- Canal Fulton Northwest
- Margin error
- 7.9
Sep 18, 2026
Beaver vs. Salem
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 27–33
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 18, 2026
Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 72–0
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 65.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–20 | 22–42 | Bellaire | Bellaire | 17.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–23 | 30–13 | Fairfield Union | Bloom-Carroll | 19.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–23 | 6–33 | Patrick Henry | Patrick Henry | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–26 | 7–41 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 28.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–22 | 51–0 | Triway | Triway | 48.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 30–17 | 47–6 | Shelby | Shelby | 28.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 57–56 | Rossford | Rossford | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–23 | 48–49 | Lima Bath | Lima Bath | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–26 | 28–46 | Ontario | Ontario | 11.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–27 | 10–24 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–17 | 20–14 | Clearview | Clearview | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–24 | 42–0 | Marion Pleasant | Clear Fork | 45.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–28 | 6–61 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 43.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 24–56 | Keystone | Keystone | 30.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–25 | 3–10 | Perkins | Perkins | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 13–31 | 6–56 | South Range | South Range | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–18 | 68–6 | Cleveland JFK | John Adams | 64.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–26 | 0–62 | Perry | Perry | 57.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–24 | 41–35 | Girard | Girard | 5.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–25 | 20–25 | Orrville | Orrville | 4.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–21 | East Liverpool | East Liverpool | 16.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–18 | 35–28 | Chagrin Falls | Chagrin Falls | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–25 | 7–24 | Canal Fulton Northwest | Canal Fulton Northwest | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 27–33 | Salem | Salem | 4.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–17 | 72–0 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 65.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
