Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Blackhawk Christian vs. South Adams
- Projected
- 15–27
- Final
- 16–42
- Projected winner
- South Adams
- Margin error
- 14.1
Sep 18, 2026
Farrell vs. Wilmington
- Projected
- 26–27
- Final
- 25–14
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 11.5
Sep 18, 2026
Birmingham Brother Rice vs. U of D Jesuit
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Birmingham Brother Rice
- Margin error
- 31.6
Sep 18, 2026
Warren De La Salle vs. Detroit Catholic Central
- Projected
- 21–28
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- Detroit Catholic Central
- Margin error
- 46.4
Sep 18, 2026
Holgate vs. Danbury
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 14–36
- Projected winner
- Danbury
- Margin error
- 21.5
Sep 18, 2026
North Central vs. Whiteford
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 22–70
- Projected winner
- Whiteford
- Margin error
- 37.2
Sep 18, 2026
Mississinawa Valley vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 6–12
- Projected winner
- Twin Valley South
- Margin error
- 4.6
Sep 18, 2026
Bradford vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 7–44
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 35.9
Sep 18, 2026
Ansonia vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 25–27
- Final
- 22–29
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 5.6
Sep 18, 2026
Tuscarawas Central Catholic vs. Federal Hocking
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 32.7
Sep 18, 2026
Racine Southern vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 19.8
Sep 18, 2026
Shadyside vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 22–19
- Projected winner
- Shadyside
- Margin error
- 0.0
Sep 18, 2026
River vs. Cameron
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 25–20
- Projected winner
- River
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 18, 2026
Ridgedale vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 8–26
- Projected winner
- Ridgemont
- Margin error
- 16.1
Sep 18, 2026
Grove City Christian vs. Miller
- Projected
- 20–14
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- Grove City Christian
- Margin error
- 32.1
Sep 18, 2026
Frontier vs. Valley (Wetzel)
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 51–6
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 33.3
Sep 18, 2026
Bridgeport vs. Magnolia
- Projected
- 24–13
- Final
- 28–36
- Projected winner
- Bridgeport
- Margin error
- 18.1
Sep 18, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Fisher Catholic
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 13–45
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 25.2
Sep 18, 2026
Berne Union vs. Millersport
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- Berne Union
- Margin error
- 49.3
Sep 18, 2026
Vanlue vs. Manchester
- Projected
- 16–19
- Final
- 28–46
- Projected winner
- Manchester
- Margin error
- 14.4
Sep 18, 2026
Upper Scioto Valley vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 16–27
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 6.6
Sep 18, 2026
Delphos St. John's vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 7–55
- Projected winner
- New Bremen
- Margin error
- 42.5
Sep 18, 2026
Leipsic vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 39–0
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 31.1
Sep 18, 2026
Edon vs. Erie Mason
- Projected
- 28–13
- Final
- 56–8
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 33.0
Sep 18, 2026
Convoy Crestview vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Fort Loramie
- Margin error
- 25.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–27 | 16–42 | South Adams | South Adams | 14.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–27 | 25–14 | Wilmington | Farrell | 11.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–18 | 35–0 | Birmingham Brother Rice | Birmingham Brother Rice | 31.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–28 | 0–53 | Detroit Catholic Central | Detroit Catholic Central | 46.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 14–36 | Danbury | Danbury | 21.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–28 | 22–70 | Whiteford | Whiteford | 37.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–17 | 6–12 | Twin Valley South | Twin Valley South | 4.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–20 | 7–44 | Tri-County North | Tri-County North | 35.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–27 | 22–29 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 5.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–18 | 48–14 | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | 32.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 7–28 | Beaver Eastern | Beaver Eastern | 19.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–24 | 22–19 | Shadyside | Shadyside | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–22 | 25–20 | River | River | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–18 | 8–26 | Ridgemont | Ridgemont | 16.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–14 | 38–0 | Grove City Christian | Grove City Christian | 32.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–15 | 51–6 | Frontier | Frontier | 33.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–13 | 28–36 | Bridgeport | Magnolia | 18.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–22 | 13–45 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 25.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–18 | 55–0 | Berne Union | Berne Union | 49.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–19 | 28–46 | Manchester | Manchester | 14.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–22 | 16–27 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 7–55 | New Bremen | New Bremen | 42.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–20 | 39–0 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 31.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–13 | 56–8 | Edon | Edon | 33.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–34 | Fort Loramie | Fort Loramie | 25.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
