Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Eastlake North vs. Lutheran West
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Eastlake North
- Margin error
- 27.6
Sep 25, 2026
Nordonia vs. North Royalton
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 34–25
- Projected winner
- Nordonia
- Margin error
- 1.1
Sep 25, 2026
Mayfield vs. Brecksville
- Projected
- 29–18
- Final
- 21–7
- Projected winner
- Mayfield
- Margin error
- 2.6
Sep 25, 2026
Maple Heights vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 27–16
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Maple Heights
- Margin error
- 30.5
Sep 25, 2026
Madison vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 46–26
- Projected winner
- Madison
- Margin error
- 19.3
Sep 25, 2026
Lakeside vs. hARVEY
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 18–20
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 1.6
Sep 25, 2026
John Marshall vs. Rhodes
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 6–66
- Projected winner
- Rhodes
- Margin error
- 59.7
Sep 25, 2026
Ellet vs. Firestone
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Ellet
- Margin error
- 7.5
Sep 25, 2026
Cuyahoga Falls vs. Akron Springfield
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 50–3
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Falls
- Margin error
- 40.5
Sep 25, 2026
John Hay vs. Glenville
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 0–46
- Projected winner
- Glenville
- Margin error
- 43.1
Sep 25, 2026
Brush vs. Garfield Heights
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- Garfield Heights
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 25, 2026
Boardman vs. McDowell
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 21–48
- Projected winner
- McDowell
- Margin error
- 21.8
Sep 25, 2026
Austintown-Fitch vs. Erie
- Projected
- 30–16
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Austintown-Fitch
- Margin error
- 27.5
Sep 25, 2026
Archbishop Hoban vs. Walsh Jesuit
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 30–0
- Projected winner
- Walsh Jesuit
- Margin error
- 39.7
Sep 25, 2026
Western Hills vs. Withrow
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 0–52
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 50.4
Sep 25, 2026
Walnut Hills vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 42–49
- Projected winner
- Loveland
- Margin error
- 6.4
Sep 25, 2026
West Clermont vs. Turpin
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 19–55
- Projected winner
- West Clermont
- Margin error
- 36.2
Sep 25, 2026
Milford vs. Anderson
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 14–58
- Projected winner
- Anderson
- Margin error
- 37.5
Sep 25, 2026
Lebanon vs. Kings
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 35–24
- Projected winner
- Lebanon
- Margin error
- 9.4
Sep 25, 2026
Lakota East vs. Princeton
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 22–48
- Projected winner
- Princeton
- Margin error
- 25.1
Sep 25, 2026
Hamilton vs. Mason
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 3–40
- Projected winner
- Mason
- Margin error
- 33.6
Sep 25, 2026
Fairfield vs. Lakota West
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–38
- Projected winner
- Lakota West
- Margin error
- 23.5
Sep 25, 2026
Elder vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 31–18
- Final
- 29–31
- Projected winner
- Elder
- Margin error
- 15.0
Sep 25, 2026
Colerain vs. Oak Hills
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 47–31
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 19.3
Sep 25, 2026
Moeller vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 45–0
- Projected winner
- Moeller
- Margin error
- 43.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–17 | 35–0 | Eastlake North | Eastlake North | 27.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–18 | 34–25 | Nordonia | Nordonia | 1.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–18 | 21–7 | Mayfield | Mayfield | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–16 | 48–7 | Maple Heights | Maple Heights | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 46–26 | Madison | Madison | 19.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–21 | 18–20 | hARVEY | hARVEY | 1.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–19 | 6–66 | Rhodes | Rhodes | 59.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–17 | 7–14 | Ellet | Firestone | 7.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–15 | 50–3 | Cuyahoga Falls | Cuyahoga Falls | 40.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–23 | 0–46 | Glenville | Glenville | 43.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–25 | 14–26 | Garfield Heights | Garfield Heights | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–22 | 21–48 | McDowell | McDowell | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 30–16 | 42–0 | Austintown-Fitch | Austintown-Fitch | 27.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–27 | 30–0 | Walsh Jesuit | Archbishop Hoban | 39.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–22 | 0–52 | Withrow | Withrow | 50.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–17 | 42–49 | Loveland | Loveland | 6.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 19–55 | West Clermont | Turpin | 36.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–25 | 14–58 | Anderson | Anderson | 37.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–21 | 35–24 | Lebanon | Lebanon | 9.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–24 | 22–48 | Princeton | Princeton | 25.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–20 | 3–40 | Mason | Mason | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–38 | Lakota West | Lakota West | 23.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 31–18 | 29–31 | Elder | St. Xavier | 15.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–23 | 47–31 | Oak Hills | Colerain | 19.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–23 | 45–0 | Moeller | Moeller | 43.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
