Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Pepper Pike Orange vs. Perry
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 14–56
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 36.0
Oct 2, 2026
Canal Fulton Northwest vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 19–28
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 5.8
Oct 2, 2026
Minerva vs. St. Thomas Aquinas
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 45–6
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 36.7
Oct 2, 2026
Lakeview vs. Struthers
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 28–12
- Projected winner
- Struthers
- Margin error
- 16.7
Oct 2, 2026
Mentor Lake Catholic vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 37.6
Oct 2, 2026
Girard vs. South Range
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 46–42
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 3.4
Oct 2, 2026
Fairless vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 21–27
- Projected winner
- Akron Manchester
- Margin error
- 0.6
Oct 2, 2026
Ashtabula Edgewood vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 29.8
Oct 2, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Richmond Edison
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 7–3
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 0.5
Oct 2, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Brooklyn
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Chagrin Falls
- Margin error
- 38.6
Oct 2, 2026
Canton South vs. Triway
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 6–62
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 44.4
Oct 2, 2026
St. Marys Memorial vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 43–42
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 6.0
Oct 2, 2026
Lima Shawnee vs. Wapakoneta
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 14–26
- Projected winner
- Wapakoneta
- Margin error
- 11.1
Oct 2, 2026
Monroe vs. Eaton
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 35–17
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 12.8
Oct 2, 2026
Hughes vs. Taft
- Projected
- 29–10
- Final
- 38–6
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 12.2
Oct 2, 2026
Goshen vs. New Richmond
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 36.4
Oct 2, 2026
Chaminade Julienne vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 0–37
- Projected winner
- Archbishop McNicholas
- Margin error
- 33.9
Oct 2, 2026
Dunbar vs. Trotwood-Madison
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 6–51
- Projected winner
- Dunbar
- Margin error
- 45.5
Oct 2, 2026
Celina vs. Elida
- Projected
- 28–16
- Final
- 45–21
- Projected winner
- Celina
- Margin error
- 12.9
Oct 2, 2026
Bellbrook vs. Franklin
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 42–3
- Projected winner
- Bellbrook
- Margin error
- 26.8
Oct 2, 2026
Hamilton Badin vs. Bishop Fenwick
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 24–40
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 15.8
Oct 2, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Archbishop Carroll
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 50–7
- Projected winner
- Archbishop Alter
- Margin error
- 37.9
Oct 2, 2026
Wilmington vs. Clinton-Massie
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 28–31
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 9.0
Oct 2, 2026
Western Brown vs. Batavia
- Projected
- 21–16
- Final
- 41–21
- Projected winner
- Western Brown
- Margin error
- 15.0
Oct 2, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. Maysville
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 41–32
- Projected winner
- Tri-Valley
- Margin error
- 0.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–25 | 14–56 | Perry | Perry | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–24 | 19–28 | Orrville | Orrville | 5.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–17 | 45–6 | Minerva | Minerva | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–19 | 28–12 | Struthers | Lakeview | 16.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–23 | 35–0 | Elyria Catholic | Mentor Lake Catholic | 37.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–24 | 46–42 | Girard | Girard | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–27 | 21–27 | Akron Manchester | Akron Manchester | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–39 | Hawken | Hawken | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–18 | 7–3 | East Liverpool | East Liverpool | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–17 | 48–6 | Chagrin Falls | Chagrin Falls | 38.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–28 | 6–62 | Triway | Triway | 44.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–24 | 43–42 | Van Wert | St. Marys Memorial | 6.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–23 | 14–26 | Wapakoneta | Wapakoneta | 11.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–19 | 35–17 | Monroe | Monroe | 12.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 29–10 | 38–6 | Hughes | Hughes | 12.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–20 | 48–7 | Goshen | Goshen | 36.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–23 | 0–37 | Archbishop McNicholas | Archbishop McNicholas | 33.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 24–23 | 6–51 | Dunbar | Trotwood-Madison | 45.5 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–16 | 45–21 | Celina | Celina | 12.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–15 | 42–3 | Bellbrook | Bellbrook | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–24 | 24–40 | Bishop Fenwick | Bishop Fenwick | 15.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–18 | 50–7 | Archbishop Alter | Archbishop Alter | 37.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–19 | 28–31 | Wilmington | Clinton-Massie | 9.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–16 | 41–21 | Western Brown | Western Brown | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–17 | 41–32 | Tri-Valley | Tri-Valley | 0.6 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
