Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
East Palestine vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- East Palestine
- Margin error
- 27.9
Sep 25, 2026
East Canton vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 39–14
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 26.5
Sep 25, 2026
Columbiana vs. Salineville Southern
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 52–6
- Projected winner
- Columbiana
- Margin error
- 44.2
Sep 25, 2026
Canton Central Catholic vs. Crestline
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Canton Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 31.4
Sep 25, 2026
West Liberty-Salem vs. Fairbanks
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 33–27
- Projected winner
- West Liberty-Salem
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 25, 2026
Versailles vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 16–13
- Projected winner
- New Bremen
- Margin error
- 9.2
Sep 25, 2026
Summit Country Day vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 38–36
- Projected winner
- Summit Country Day
- Margin error
- 1.8
Sep 25, 2026
Purcell Marian vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 8–7
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 6.9
Sep 25, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Bradford
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- Preble Shawnee
- Margin error
- 38.3
Sep 25, 2026
Madeira vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 14–38
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 18.5
Sep 25, 2026
Greenon vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 20–14
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 5.4
Sep 25, 2026
Finneytown vs. Reading
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Reading
- Margin error
- 40.9
Sep 25, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Williamsburg
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Williamsburg
- Margin error
- 31.6
Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati Hills CA vs. Taft
- Projected
- 26–13
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Hills CA
- Margin error
- 23.2
Sep 25, 2026
Brookville vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 38–35
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 2.9
Sep 25, 2026
Blanchester vs. East Clinton
- Projected
- 21–14
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 34.4
Sep 25, 2026
Bethel vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 24–41
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 8.6
Sep 25, 2026
Westfall vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 18–15
- Final
- 43–14
- Projected winner
- Westfall
- Margin error
- 26.5
Sep 25, 2026
South Point vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 30–24
- Projected winner
- South Point
- Margin error
- 5.8
Sep 25, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 28–20
- Projected winner
- Wellston
- Margin error
- 12.8
Sep 25, 2026
Piketon vs. Zane Trace
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 27–48
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 17.9
Sep 25, 2026
McDermott Northwest vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 13–25
- Final
- 10–42
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 20.9
Sep 25, 2026
Minford vs. Portsmouth West
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 0–43
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth West
- Margin error
- 41.6
Sep 25, 2026
Meigs vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 36.9
Sep 25, 2026
Johnstown vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 42–28
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 9.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–17 | 38–7 | East Palestine | East Palestine | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–22 | 39–14 | Tuscarawas Central Catholic | East Canton | 26.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 52–6 | Columbiana | Columbiana | 44.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–18 | 42–7 | Canton Central Catholic | Canton Central Catholic | 31.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–19 | 33–27 | West Liberty-Salem | West Liberty-Salem | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–26 | 16–13 | New Bremen | Versailles | 9.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–23 | 38–36 | Summit Country Day | Summit Country Day | 1.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–23 | 8–7 | Rock Hill | Purcell Marian | 6.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–17 | 44–0 | Preble Shawnee | Preble Shawnee | 38.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–27 | 14–38 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 18.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–14 | 20–14 | Greenon | Greenon | 5.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–20 | 6–49 | Reading | Reading | 40.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–22 | 0–34 | Williamsburg | Williamsburg | 31.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–13 | 36–0 | Cincinnati Hills CA | Cincinnati Hills CA | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–21 | 38–35 | Brookville | Brookville | 2.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–14 | 41–0 | Blanchester | Blanchester | 34.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–25 | 24–41 | Riverside | Riverside | 8.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–15 | 43–14 | Westfall | Westfall | 26.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–24 | 30–24 | South Point | South Point | 5.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–21 | 28–20 | Wellston | Bidwell River Valley | 12.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–24 | 27–48 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 17.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–25 | 10–42 | Lucasville Valley | Lucasville Valley | 20.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–22 | 0–43 | Portsmouth West | Portsmouth West | 41.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–27 | 0–42 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 36.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–20 | 42–28 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 9.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.