Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Detroit King vs. Detroit Cass Tech
- Projected
- 23–29
- Final
- 7–20
- Projected winner
- Detroit Cass Tech
- Margin error
- 7.9
Sep 25, 2026
Holgate vs. St. Mary Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 20–42
- Projected winner
- St. Mary Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 21.0
Sep 25, 2026
Trinity vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 24–27
- Final
- 44–0
- Projected winner
- St. Xavier
- Margin error
- 46.6
Sep 25, 2026
North Central vs. Summerfield
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 32–15
- Projected winner
- Summerfield
- Margin error
- 20.9
Sep 25, 2026
Mississinawa Valley vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 0–61
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 46.4
Sep 25, 2026
Marion Local vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 17–7
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 8.0
Sep 25, 2026
Fayetteville-Perry vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 8–42
- Projected winner
- Fayetteville-Perry
- Margin error
- 35.6
Sep 25, 2026
Beaver Eastern vs. Sciotoville East
- Projected
- 27–14
- Final
- 37–2
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 21.8
Sep 25, 2026
Ansonia vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 70–0
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 56.6
Sep 25, 2026
Racine Southern vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 39–12
- Projected winner
- Racine Southern
- Margin error
- 26.3
Sep 25, 2026
South Gallia vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 20.6
Sep 25, 2026
Monroe Central vs. Wheeling Central Catholic
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 0.9
Sep 25, 2026
Grove City Christian vs. Millersport
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Grove City Christian
- Margin error
- 39.8
Sep 25, 2026
Frontier vs. Saint Marys
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 29–20
- Projected winner
- Saint Marys
- Margin error
- 9.6
Sep 25, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Reedsville Eastern
- Margin error
- 40.2
Sep 25, 2026
Cardington-Lincoln vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 7–57
- Projected winner
- East Knox
- Margin error
- 47.2
Sep 25, 2026
Bridgeport vs. Conotton Valley
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 16–50
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 27.5
Sep 25, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Fairfield Christian
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Christian
- Margin error
- 18.9
Sep 25, 2026
Lima Perry vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 24–30
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 4.2
Sep 25, 2026
Pandora-Gilboa vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Pandora-Gilboa
- Margin error
- 40.4
Sep 25, 2026
North Baltimore vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 50–22
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 13.9
Sep 25, 2026
Lima Central Catholic vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 27–23
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Lima Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 25, 2026
Hilltop vs. Erie Mason
- Projected
- 19–14
- Final
- 43–14
- Projected winner
- Hilltop
- Margin error
- 24.6
Sep 25, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Vanlue
- Projected
- 19–16
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- Hardin Northern
- Margin error
- 43.9
Sep 25, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 17–18
- Final
- 3–0
- Projected winner
- Ridgedale
- Margin error
- 3.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–29 | 7–20 | Detroit Cass Tech | Detroit Cass Tech | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–22 | 20–42 | St. Mary Central Catholic | St. Mary Central Catholic | 21.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–27 | 44–0 | St. Xavier | Trinity | 46.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–21 | 32–15 | Summerfield | North Central | 20.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–29 | 0–61 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 46.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–24 | 17–7 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 8.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–21 | 8–42 | Fayetteville-Perry | Miami Valley CA | 35.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–14 | 37–2 | Beaver Eastern | Beaver Eastern | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–15 | 70–0 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 56.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–20 | 39–12 | Racine Southern | Racine Southern | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–17 | 34–7 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–27 | 14–21 | Wheeling Central Catholic | Wheeling Central Catholic | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–18 | 42–0 | Grove City Christian | Grove City Christian | 39.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–25 | 29–20 | Saint Marys | Frontier | 9.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–20 | 0–35 | Reedsville Eastern | Waterford | 40.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–21 | 7–57 | East Knox | East Knox | 47.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–25 | 16–50 | Conotton Valley | Conotton Valley | 27.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–18 | 0–21 | Fairfield Christian | Fairfield Christian | 18.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–21 | 24–30 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–21 | 42–0 | Pandora-Gilboa | Pandora-Gilboa | 40.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–14 | 50–22 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 13.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–23 | 42–7 | Lima Central Catholic | Lima Central Catholic | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–14 | 43–14 | Hilltop | Hilltop | 24.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–16 | 47–0 | Hardin Northern | Hardin Northern | 43.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–18 | 3–0 | Ridgedale | Cory-Rawson | 3.2 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
