Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Wauseon vs. Archbold
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 27.1
Oct 2, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Bucyrus
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 37–0
- Projected winner
- Upper Sandusky
- Margin error
- 36.0
Oct 2, 2026
Rossford vs. Genoa
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 13–55
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 38.6
Oct 2, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 14–24
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 14.6
Oct 2, 2026
Keystone vs. Wellington
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Keystone
- Margin error
- 35.7
Oct 2, 2026
Galion vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–7
- Projected winner
- Marion Pleasant
- Margin error
- 16.3
Oct 2, 2026
Firelands vs. Black River
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–12
- Projected winner
- Firelands
- Margin error
- 25.4
Oct 2, 2026
Clyde vs. Milan Edison
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 38–21
- Projected winner
- Milan Edison
- Margin error
- 21.6
Oct 2, 2026
Clear Fork vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 22–28
- Final
- 21–28
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 1.5
Oct 2, 2026
Bryan vs. Swanton
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- Swanton
- Margin error
- 28.1
Oct 2, 2026
Brookside vs. Clearview
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 41–20
- Projected winner
- Brookside
- Margin error
- 12.7
Oct 2, 2026
Bellevue vs. Huron
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 56–21
- Projected winner
- Bellevue
- Margin error
- 26.9
Oct 2, 2026
West Branch vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 28–17
- Final
- 31–7
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 13.9
Oct 2, 2026
Shaw vs. Lutheran East
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 20–50
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 34.3
Oct 2, 2026
Pepper Pike Orange vs. Perry
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 14–56
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 36.0
Oct 2, 2026
Canal Fulton Northwest vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 19–28
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 5.8
Oct 2, 2026
Minerva vs. St. Thomas Aquinas
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 45–6
- Projected winner
- Minerva
- Margin error
- 36.7
Oct 2, 2026
Lakeview vs. Struthers
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 28–12
- Projected winner
- Struthers
- Margin error
- 16.7
Oct 2, 2026
Mentor Lake Catholic vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 37.6
Oct 2, 2026
Girard vs. South Range
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 46–42
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 3.4
Oct 2, 2026
Fairless vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 21–27
- Final
- 21–27
- Projected winner
- Akron Manchester
- Margin error
- 0.6
Oct 2, 2026
Ashtabula Edgewood vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–39
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 29.8
Oct 2, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Richmond Edison
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 7–3
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 0.5
Oct 2, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Brooklyn
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Chagrin Falls
- Margin error
- 38.6
Oct 2, 2026
Canton South vs. Triway
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 6–62
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 44.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–29 | 7–48 | Archbold | Archbold | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–19 | 37–0 | Upper Sandusky | Upper Sandusky | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–24 | 13–55 | Genoa | Genoa | 38.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–21 | 14–24 | Port Clinton | Vermilion | 14.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–15 | 49–0 | Keystone | Keystone | 35.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–7 | Marion Pleasant | Galion | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–12 | Firelands | Firelands | 25.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–23 | 38–21 | Milan Edison | Clyde | 21.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–28 | 21–28 | Shelby | Shelby | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–19 | 35–7 | Swanton | Bryan | 28.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–15 | 41–20 | Brookside | Brookside | 12.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–17 | 56–21 | Bellevue | Bellevue | 26.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 28–17 | 31–7 | West Branch | West Branch | 13.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–17 | 20–50 | Shaw | Lutheran East | 34.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–25 | 14–56 | Perry | Perry | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–24 | 19–28 | Orrville | Orrville | 5.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–17 | 45–6 | Minerva | Minerva | 36.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–19 | 28–12 | Struthers | Lakeview | 16.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–23 | 35–0 | Elyria Catholic | Mentor Lake Catholic | 37.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–24 | 46–42 | Girard | Girard | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–27 | 21–27 | Akron Manchester | Akron Manchester | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–39 | Hawken | Hawken | 29.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–18 | 7–3 | East Liverpool | East Liverpool | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–17 | 48–6 | Chagrin Falls | Chagrin Falls | 38.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–28 | 6–62 | Triway | Triway | 44.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
