Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 2, 2026
Valley View vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Valley View
- Margin error
- 25.8
Oct 2, 2026
Unioto vs. Piketon
- Projected
- 25–22
- Final
- 21–22
- Projected winner
- Unioto
- Margin error
- 4.0
Oct 2, 2026
Taylor vs. Reading
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 14–17
- Projected winner
- Reading
- Margin error
- 1.0
Oct 2, 2026
Shroder vs. Clark Montessori
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 6–19
- Projected winner
- Clark Montessori
- Margin error
- 11.3
Oct 2, 2026
Oakwood vs. Brookville
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Oakwood
- Margin error
- 38.1
Oct 2, 2026
Norwood vs. Stivers School For The Arts
- Projected
- 15–19
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Stivers School For The Arts
- Margin error
- 46.0
Oct 2, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 18–40
- Projected winner
- Riverside
- Margin error
- 12.4
Oct 2, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 39–18
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 25.1
Oct 2, 2026
McClain vs. Washington CH
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Washington CH
- Margin error
- 33.4
Oct 2, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Finneytown
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 58–0
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 44.5
Oct 2, 2026
Graham Local vs. Springfield Northwestern
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 51–6
- Projected winner
- Graham Local
- Margin error
- 33.6
Oct 2, 2026
Bethel-Tate vs. East Clinton
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 40–6
- Projected winner
- Bethel-Tate
- Margin error
- 30.3
Oct 2, 2026
Vincent Warren vs. John Marshall
- Projected
- 13–24
- Final
- 18–44
- Projected winner
- John Marshall
- Margin error
- 14.3
Oct 2, 2026
Vinton County vs. McDermott Northwest
- Projected
- 25–12
- Final
- 38–15
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 10.0
Oct 2, 2026
St. Clairsville vs. Bellaire
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 34–28
- Projected winner
- Bellaire
- Margin error
- 8.6
Oct 2, 2026
Philo vs. River View
- Projected
- 27–12
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 34.0
Oct 2, 2026
Meadowbrook vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 0–47
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 32.5
Oct 2, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 22–27
- Projected winner
- Logan Elm
- Margin error
- 12.3
Oct 2, 2026
Hebron Lakewood vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 30–52
- Projected winner
- Newark Catholic
- Margin error
- 13.4
Oct 2, 2026
Indian Valley vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 29–16
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Indian Valley
- Margin error
- 20.8
Oct 2, 2026
Heath vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 49–8
- Projected winner
- Heath
- Margin error
- 39.3
Oct 2, 2026
Gallia Academy vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 15–20
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 5.7
Oct 2, 2026
Claymont vs. WL Ridgewood
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 14–8
- Projected winner
- Claymont
- Margin error
- 0.3
Oct 2, 2026
Circleville vs. Fairfield Union
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 7–28
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Union
- Margin error
- 20.1
Oct 2, 2026
Cambridge vs. Union Local
- Projected
- 14–27
- Final
- 7–55
- Projected winner
- Union Local
- Margin error
- 35.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–17 | 42–7 | Valley View | Valley View | 25.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–22 | 21–22 | Unioto | Piketon | 4.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18–22 | 14–17 | Reading | Reading | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 17–19 | 6–19 | Clark Montessori | Clark Montessori | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–21 | 42–0 | Oakwood | Oakwood | 38.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–19 | 42–0 | Stivers School For The Arts | Norwood | 46.0 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–25 | 18–40 | Riverside | Riverside | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 16–20 | 39–18 | Troy Christian | Milton-Union | 25.1 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 20–22 | 6–41 | Washington CH | Washington CH | 33.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–13 | 58–0 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 44.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 26–15 | 51–6 | Graham Local | Graham Local | 33.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–15 | 40–6 | Bethel-Tate | Bethel-Tate | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 13–24 | 18–44 | John Marshall | John Marshall | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 25–12 | 38–15 | Vinton County | Vinton County | 10.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 19–22 | 34–28 | Bellaire | St. Clairsville | 8.6 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–12 | 48–0 | Philo | Philo | 34.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–29 | 0–47 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 32.5 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 23–16 | 22–27 | Logan Elm | Amanda-Clearcreek | 12.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–23 | 30–52 | Newark Catholic | Newark Catholic | 13.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 29–16 | 41–7 | Indian Valley | Indian Valley | 20.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–20 | 49–8 | Heath | Heath | 39.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 15–20 | 28–27 | Rock Hill | Gallia Academy | 5.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 27–22 | 14–8 | Claymont | Claymont | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 22–23 | 7–28 | Fairfield Union | Fairfield Union | 20.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 14–27 | 7–55 | Union Local | Union Local | 35.8 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.