Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Walnut Hills vs. Withrow
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 13–50
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 27.2
Aug 21, 2026
Sycamore vs. Kings
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Kings
- Margin error
- 20.6
Aug 21, 2026
Oak Hills vs. Trenton Edgewood
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 49–20
- Projected winner
- Oak Hills
- Margin error
- 27.9
Aug 21, 2026
Milford vs. Harrison
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 27.1
Aug 21, 2026
Lakota West vs. St. Xavier
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 20–7
- Projected winner
- Lakota West
- Margin error
- 12.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hamilton vs. Hamilton Badin
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 7–33
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 14.0
Aug 21, 2026
Westland vs. Teays Valley
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 33–28
- Projected winner
- Teays Valley
- Margin error
- 6.2
Aug 21, 2026
Colerain vs. LaSalle
- Projected
- 16–23
- Final
- 21–30
- Projected winner
- LaSalle
- Margin error
- 1.5
Aug 21, 2026
Westerville Central vs. Marion Franklin
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Marion Franklin
- Margin error
- 23.3
Aug 21, 2026
Thomas Worthington vs. Dublin Scioto
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 30–28
- Projected winner
- Dublin Scioto
- Margin error
- 4.6
Aug 21, 2026
Upper Arlington vs. Olentangy
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Olentangy
- Margin error
- 36.4
Aug 21, 2026
Pickerington North vs. Troy
- Projected
- 21–28
- Final
- 31–14
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 23.5
Aug 21, 2026
Olentangy Orange vs. Olentangy Berlin
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 6–21
- Projected winner
- Olentangy Orange
- Margin error
- 22.9
Aug 21, 2026
Newark vs. Licking Heights
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 16–12
- Projected winner
- Newark
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
New Albany vs. London
- Projected
- 18–29
- Final
- 17–14
- Projected winner
- London
- Margin error
- 13.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hilliard Davidson vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 30–6
- Projected winner
- Hilliard Davidson
- Margin error
- 22.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hilliard Darby vs. Lancaster
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 20–15
- Projected winner
- Lancaster
- Margin error
- 8.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hilliard Bradley vs. Big Walnut
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 7–32
- Projected winner
- Big Walnut
- Margin error
- 12.5
Aug 21, 2026
Groveport-Madison vs. Africentric
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 14–6
- Projected winner
- Africentric
- Margin error
- 12.5
Aug 21, 2026
Grove City vs. Canal Winchester
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 28–27
- Projected winner
- Canal Winchester
- Margin error
- 1.5
Aug 21, 2026
Gahanna Lincoln vs. Pickerington Central
- Projected
- 20–28
- Final
- 35–3
- Projected winner
- Pickerington Central
- Margin error
- 40.0
Aug 21, 2026
Central Crossing vs. St. Charles
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Central Crossing
- Margin error
- 36.6
Aug 21, 2026
Whitmer vs. Reynoldsburg
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 42–23
- Projected winner
- Whitmer
- Margin error
- 13.8
Aug 21, 2026
Wayne vs. Fairfield
- Projected
- 28–14
- Final
- 25–35
- Projected winner
- Wayne
- Margin error
- 23.6
Aug 21, 2026
Start vs. Norwalk
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 34–17
- Projected winner
- Start
- Margin error
- 12.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–25 | 13–50 | Withrow | Withrow | 27.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–23 | 6–34 | Kings | Kings | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–20 | 49–20 | Oak Hills | Oak Hills | 27.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–35 | Harrison | Harrison | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–24 | 20–7 | Lakota West | Lakota West | 12.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 7–33 | Hamilton Badin | Hamilton Badin | 14.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 33–28 | Teays Valley | Westland | 6.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–23 | 21–30 | LaSalle | LaSalle | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–20 | 21–0 | Marion Franklin | Westerville Central | 23.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–20 | 30–28 | Dublin Scioto | Thomas Worthington | 4.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–25 | 40–7 | Olentangy | Upper Arlington | 36.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–28 | 31–14 | Troy | Pickerington North | 23.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 28–20 | 6–21 | Olentangy Orange | Olentangy Berlin | 22.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–16 | 16–12 | Newark | Newark | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–29 | 17–14 | London | New Albany | 13.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–18 | 30–6 | Hilliard Davidson | Hilliard Davidson | 22.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 20–15 | Lancaster | Hilliard Darby | 8.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 7–32 | Big Walnut | Big Walnut | 12.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–26 | 14–6 | Africentric | Groveport-Madison | 12.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 28–27 | Canal Winchester | Grove City | 1.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–28 | 35–3 | Pickerington Central | Gahanna Lincoln | 40.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–17 | 7–42 | Central Crossing | St. Charles | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–20 | 42–23 | Whitmer | Whitmer | 13.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 28–14 | 25–35 | Wayne | Fairfield | 23.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–17 | 34–17 | Start | Start | 12.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
