Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Padua Franciscan vs. South Range
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 7–46
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 29.9
Aug 21, 2026
Mansfield Madison vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 42.9
Aug 21, 2026
Lexington vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Lexington
- Margin error
- 32.3
Aug 21, 2026
Defiance vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 9–8
- Projected winner
- Napoleon
- Margin error
- 9.7
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 24–29
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 1.3
Aug 21, 2026
Medina Buckeye vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 6–10
- Projected winner
- Medina Buckeye
- Margin error
- 11.6
Aug 21, 2026
Ashland vs. Bay
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Ashland
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 21, 2026
West Geauga vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Fairview Park
- Margin error
- 29.7
Aug 21, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Copley
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 9.5
Aug 21, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Waterloo
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 3–8
- Projected winner
- Waterloo
- Margin error
- 3.6
Aug 21, 2026
Ravenna vs. Field
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Field
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 21, 2026
ND Cathedral Latin vs. Struthers
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 42–16
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 21.8
Aug 21, 2026
Marlington vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 31–6
- Projected winner
- Warrensville Heights
- Margin error
- 26.9
Aug 21, 2026
Louisville vs. New Philadelphia
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 20–10
- Projected winner
- New Philadelphia
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 21, 2026
Hubbard vs. Brookfield
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Brookfield
- Margin error
- 5.5
Aug 21, 2026
Howland vs. Niles McKinley
- Projected
- 19–14
- Final
- 26–12
- Projected winner
- Howland
- Margin error
- 9.3
Aug 21, 2026
hARVEY vs. Berkshire
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 27–22
- Projected winner
- hARVEY
- Margin error
- 0.6
Aug 21, 2026
Coventry vs. Girard
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 0–47
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 31.0
Aug 21, 2026
Alliance vs. Canal Fulton Northwest
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 0–16
- Projected winner
- Canal Fulton Northwest
- Margin error
- 15.4
Aug 21, 2026
Turpin vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 10–31
- Projected winner
- Turpin
- Margin error
- 28.4
Aug 21, 2026
Talawanda vs. Taylor
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 33–6
- Projected winner
- Taylor
- Margin error
- 28.9
Aug 21, 2026
Stebbins vs. Archbishop Carroll
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 41–6
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 32.5
Aug 21, 2026
Sidney vs. Bellefontaine
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Sidney
- Margin error
- 24.2
Aug 21, 2026
Loveland vs. Monroe
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 6–39
- Projected winner
- Loveland
- Margin error
- 44.6
Aug 21, 2026
Lima Senior vs. Piqua
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Lima Senior
- Margin error
- 27.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 7–46 | South Range | South Range | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–28 | 0–54 | Shelby | Shelby | 42.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–21 | 7–35 | Lexington | Ontario | 32.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 9–8 | Napoleon | Defiance | 9.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 24–29 | Hawken | Hawken | 1.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–19 | 6–10 | Medina Buckeye | Cloverleaf | 11.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–21 | 28–7 | Ashland | Ashland | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 27–0 | Fairview Park | West Geauga | 29.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–24 | 20–28 | Streetsboro | Copley | 9.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–17 | 3–8 | Waterloo | Waterloo | 3.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–22 | 28–7 | Field | Ravenna | 26.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–20 | 42–16 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 21.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–18 | 31–6 | Warrensville Heights | Marlington | 26.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 20–10 | New Philadelphia | Louisville | 10.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–14 | Brookfield | Brookfield | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–14 | 26–12 | Howland | Howland | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–20 | 27–22 | hARVEY | hARVEY | 0.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–28 | 0–47 | Girard | Girard | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–24 | 0–16 | Canal Fulton Northwest | Canal Fulton Northwest | 15.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–19 | 10–31 | Turpin | Archbishop McNicholas | 28.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 33–6 | Taylor | Talawanda | 28.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–17 | 41–6 | Stebbins | Stebbins | 32.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–18 | 14–35 | Sidney | Bellefontaine | 24.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–15 | 6–39 | Loveland | Monroe | 44.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–22 | 42–13 | Lima Senior | Lima Senior | 27.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
